Friday, April 26, 2019

Lions Blog: Reaction to first round pick, Day 2 Predictions

Day one Reaction 
The Pick is in... and with the number 8 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Detroit Football Lions select T.J. Hockenson, Tight End from Iowa.


This is the prediction I made and for once on this here blog of mine I was right. With this pick the team has finally moved on from Eric Ebron and embraced its destiny as the new New England Patriots. Matthew Stafford now has a weapon that will be catching pass from him for years to come and the team finally has a good all around and reliable tight end that can not only catch the football but block as well. T.J. also come from Iowa which runs a NFL style offense so as a result his transition to the pro level should be quicker than normal for a rookie tight end. Above all I believe this pick will result in the Lions running two tight ends sets much more often which will help not only the passing game but the run game as well. The team may even make the two tight end (also known as a 12 man formation) their base starting offense at some point in the season.

Because I shouldn't do a reaction without giving a grade I will give a grade here. 

I give the T.J. Hockenson Pick by the Detroit Lions an A.

Looking to Day two:
There are a lot of first round quality talent that fell to the second round including a corner that many mocked to the Lions in the first at number 8. I would like to go over a few note worthy ones that the team will be looking at in the second round and perhaps the 3rd round as well. 

According to  this Lions Wire article form today, there are plenty of options for the team to take in the second round. I am looking at the outside corner position opposite of Slay as the next target for Lions general manager Bob Quinn to target in the second round tonight. Looking at the list linked to above I see Byron Murphy, Justin Layne, David Long, Greedy Williams, Amani Oruwariye and Sean Bunting still on the board heading into the second round. I do not expect Murphy to still be there for the Lions at the 11th pick (43rd pick overall) as he should go very early in the second round. I do think there is a good chance that Williams could fall to the Lions thought and considering he was mocked to the team by some, getting Greedy in the second would be a nice move (maybe even a steal). Regardless I am expecting the team to take one of the mentioned corner backs in thew second round. Since I should make a prediction I will go with Greedy Williams to the Lions in the second round (unless the team executes a trade which in that case, throw everything out the window).

Moving to the 3rd round I sense that the team will go either defensive lineman or linebacker and the name that has stuck with me for months now is that of Christian Miller form Alabama who is expected to go somewhere on day two and can play outside as an edge rusher or as a linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Needless to say I am very much looking forward to tonight to see just how wrong (or perhaps right) I will end up being.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Lion's Blog: 2019 Draft Board Analysis

With the 2019 NFL Draft approaching I want to take some time to go through what I believe is the Detroit Lion's draft board. This exercise will be more than just me putting my own values and thoughts but will also feature me trying to get into the Mind of Matt Patricia and the new Patriot way that the Lions have adopted to come to a likely ranking of draft prospects that the team can take with the number 8 pick this year.

Biggest Needs
Just to recap what I wrote earlier the Lions have 5 Needs that can and should be address in this year's draft and they are as follows...

  1. Defensive Tackle
  2. Linebacker 
  3. Tight End
  4. Outside Corner
  5. Right Guard 

Starter Needs vs. Depth Needs
This ordering does not mean that the team will take these positions in this order in the draft as there is a difference between starting needs and depth needs that will be considered as well. It bears mentioning that starting needs rank as more important than depth needs but in cases where a position lacks enough depth to field a team (such as one that rotates like the defensive line) it can rise to being a bigger need than a that of a starter.
  1. Defensive Tackle, Depth
  2. Linebacker, Depth
  3. Tight End, Starter/ Depth
  4. Outside Corner Starter, Starter
  5. Right Guard, Starter 
As you can see, the first starter based need on the list is the tight end. This could also be a depth pick if done in the later rounds as the team does have a likely starter with Jessie James. The other to starting needs of outside corner and right guard are both starter needs but do have decent depth. The Tight end spot needs depth and a upgrade at starter and as such ranks higher than this chart shows.
 
 
Lions likely draft Board for first number 8 pick

Setting aside the unlikely event that a Quinnen Williams or a Josh Allen falls to number 8, the likely draft board for the Detroit Lions in the first round goes as follows.
  1. T.J. Hockenson, TE
  2. Devin White, LB
  3. Greedy Williams, CB
  4. Jonah Williams, T
  5. Trading down
At this point I expect the Lions to use some of their plentiful available cap space to snag a DT in free agency (most likely to bring back Ricky Jean Francois but Suh is not totally out of the question either) and they will likely use a day 2 pick on a hybrid DT/DE as well. I really do not expect the Lions to use a first round pick on the Defensive line this year especially as there is bound to be some first round quality talent that falls to the second the way Robinson fell to the Lions in 2016. The need at corner is bigger than at right guard due to less depth and therefore less competition for the spot opposite of Slay. Trading down would likely only happen if all of the above options were off the board.

Most Likely Pick
I have been aboard the T.J. Hockenson train for so long that I forgot where my stop is. Needless to say I am still on that train. I expect Devin White to be off the board at 8 and even if not, the idea of getting the next Gronkowski (and keeping him away from the Green Bay Packers) to an offense that really needs another credible weapon to be truly effective is too much to pass up
Bottom line, I expect the Detroit Lions to Draft T.J. Hockenson, Tight End from Iowa with the number 8 pick in the 2019 NFL draft. We do not have long to find out how wrong (or right) I am.

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Lions Blog: Pre-Draft Depth Chart

With plenty of time left before the draft in late April, I wanted to take a look at where the depth chart for the Detroit Lions currently stands to get a better idea as to where roster depth (or lack therefore of) is. The goal of this exercise to better guide my next post in determining where the team should and will go in next month's draft. There is also the chance of more significant free agency pickups as the team still has plenty of cap space to work with. My Goal is to have a good idea as to where the team is strongest and where it needs to improve with the remainder of the off season.

Offense (26 Players)
The offense struggled mightily last year with the loss of skilled position players due to injury or trades and as a result needed much more attention to make the team competitive this year. While most of the money spent in free agency has gone to the defensive side there was some key additions to the offense this year as well. It is important to note that the only major losses the offense had that will not be here this year (sadly) were Golden Tate and T.J. Lang. While T.J. Jones, Luke Wilson, and Levine Toilolo are also not on the roster, the team's offense still looks very similar now to where it was at the end of the season. The team did recently sign a back up running back in former Rams and Panthers runner C.J. Anderson who looks like the favorite to go behind Kerryon Johnson in the back field. The Lions also brought in more tight end depth (Logan Thomas) and more competition for the recently vacated right guard spot (Oday Aboushi). Here is where the current roster depth chart (and Almost a 53 man chart) stands. 

Offensive Line
Starters: Taylor Decker - Frank Ragnow - Graham Glasgow -Kenny Wiggins - Rick Wagner
Depth:   Andrew Donnal - Joe Dahl - Leo Koloamantangi - Oday Aboushi - Tyrell Crosby

Tight Ends
Jessie James - Micheal Roberts - Logan Thomas

Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay - Marvin Jones - Danny Amendola - Tommylee Lewis - Brandon Powell

Running Backs                                                                                            (Full Backs)
Kerryon Johnson - C.J. Anderson - Zach Zenner - Theo Riddick - (Nick Bellore - Nick Bawden)

Quarter Backs
Matthew Stafford - Connor Cook

Defense (26 Players)
The Defense received the Lion's share of the free agency money spent by the team this year with the addition of Trey Flowers and Justin Coleman. The Lions really started the off season additions to the defense with the mid season trade for Damon (Snacks) Harrison last year, a move that turned them into a top 10 run defense overnight. This free agency period might have turned the defense as a whole into a top 10 or even a top 5 unit. The later addition of Rashaan Melvin gives them some flexibility on the outside corner but the team seems like it is still lacking a true starter opposite of Darius Slay. The  addition of Andrew Adams gives the team depth in the secondary and options for fielding 3 or more safeties at once. The starting players on the Defensive line looks stellar but how is it looking in depth and where do the Linebackers look after Jarrad Davis and Devon Kennard? Here is where the current depth chart stands for the defense.

Defensive Line 
Starters: Da'Shawn Hand - A'Shawn Robinson - Damon Harrison - Trey Flowers
Depth: Romeo Okwara - John Atkins - Eric Lee - Mitchell Loewen

Line Backers
Starters: Devon Kennard - Jarrad Davis
Depth: Jalen Reeves Maybin - Christian Jones - Steve Longa - Trevor Bates - Miles Killebrew

Corner Backs
Starters: Darius Slay - Justin Coleman - Rashaan Melvin
Depth: Teez Tabor - Jamal Agnew - Mike Ford

Safeties
Starters: Quandre Diggs - Tracy Walker
Depth: Tavon Wilson - Andrew Adams - Charles Washington

Roster Strengths and Weaknesses 

Strengths
The obvious strength of the team is the staring defensive line, which is one that will be very difficult for opposing running backs to get any momentum against with so many run stuffers at the ready. The unit should also be much improved at pass rushing with the addition of Flowers and the expected second year jump with Hand.

The offense side is less obvious as it needs more improvements over last year. Looking at it to me the wide receiver group looks pretty strong if everyone is healthy. The Lions will have to decide if they want 4 or 5 wide outs this year. The running back group looks pretty set as well with a good starter and some decent depth. There will be a full back battle between Bellore and Bawden as there likely will be only one FB. The Lions are set with Stafford as the starter (obviously) but might want some competition for the back up role with only Cook in that position.

Needs Starter(s)
The offensive line is good at depth but needs a starter at right guard with the departure of T.J. Lang. As of now the Lions have 4 players who could compete for the starter at RG and for the moment I have put Wiggins at that spot as he was the starter for much of last year. A camp battle between Wiggen, Dahl, Aboushi, and Crosby has a decent chance of yielding a respectable starter, unless the team goes for one early in this year's draft. Most likely the team will take another RG somewhere on day 3 and add yet more competition for that starting spot. 

On defense the team lacks an obvious starter for the outside corner opposite of Slay. I put Melvin there for the moment but is the team can make a upgrade there in the first two days of the draft or in the remainder of free agency I would expect them to do so. As of now it will likely be a camp battle between Tabor and Melvin for that starting spot.

Needs Depth
While the starting defensive line is impressive, less so is the depth behind it. As of now the team has only 3 defensive tackles, which is a heavily rotated position. Flowers can line up as a DT if need be but the team desperately needs more depth in the middle of the line. I would expect the team to address this with a high pick if not before then in free agency (Ndamukong Suh is still out there waiting to be signed). The linebackers are also needed an improvement in depth as they do not have enough talent to field an effective 3-4 defensive front right now. I would not be surprised if the Lions go linebacker with the number 8 pick in the draft. 

On offense the team needs depth at tight end. Jessie James is the likely starter at this point but the team should take advantage of this draft's excellent depth at the position. T.J. Hockenson is the only player who could dislodge James from the starting spot and he would have to be taken in the first round (a decent possibility) but there should be plenty of day two options as well. I expect the team to draft a tight end in the first two days of the draft.

Conclusion 
Looking at the current depth chart has told me more than I expect about the team's needs going into the draft. I think the team's biggest needs are Defensive Tackle (likely a hybrid DT/DE), Line Backer, Tight End, Outside Corner, and a Right Guard, in that order. I honestly expect the team to go after a DT in free agency which could include re-signing Ricky Jean Francois or going after the big fish, Suh (I have heard nothing about this as being plausible, I am just pointing out that he is still unsigned)  I will go into deeper potential draft targets in the next post but I do expect all of those 5 above mentioned positions to be taken in this year's draft.