Lions Blog: Post-Draft Depth Chart

With the 2019 NFL Draft firmly in the rear view mirror and the off season workouts on the horizon I though this would be a good time to make some post draft roster predictions. I know that free agency is an ongoing event and there are always ways to take advantage of cut day to fill some roster holes. Nevertheless, looking at the way the roster looks following the draft I can make some somewhat educated predictions as to where this roster is going. I intend to do more in-depth offense and defense focused posts in the future during the long time between organized team activities and training camp but for now I am focused on roster predictions as opposed to position predictions.

Offense (25 Players)
While the offense may have seamed like an after thought coming out of free agency it was front and center in this year's draft with the selection of T.J. Hockenson, tight end from Iowa. The shift that this pick causes in the tight end squad not only increases the quality of the depth but gives the Detroit Lions the ability to run two tight end sets a lot more often (which I expect to become the base offense at some point this season). The drafting of Travis Fulghram in the sixth round give the team a long term developmental player like Kenny Golladay (and perhaps even an eventual replacement for Marvin Jones if needed.) The addition of two offensive linemen from the undrafted free agent pool gives the team better depth on the O-Line and some more competition for the starting right guard spot. I expect the sixth round running back Ty Johnson and seventh round tight end Isaac Nauta to wind up on the practice squad. Johnson could win a roster spot via the kick or punt return job and if the team moves on from Micheal Roberts that would open the door for Nauta to make the roster. I have Cook at the backup QB spot but I could also see Tom Savage take that job as well.

Offensive Line
   Starters: Taylor Decker - Frank Ragnow - Graham Glasgow -Kenny Wiggins - Rick Wagner
   Depth: Ryan Pope - Beau Benzschawel - Joe Dahl - Oday Aboushi - Tyrell Crosby
Tight ends 
  Starters: Jessie James - T.J. Hockenson
  Depth: Micheal Roberts
Wide Receivers 
  Starters: Kenny Golladay - Marvin Jones - Danny Amendola
  Depth: Tommylee Lewis - Travis Fulgham 
 Running Backs                                                  (Full Back)
  Starters: Kerryon Johnson - C.J. Anderson - (Nick Bawden)
  Depth: Zach Zenner - Theo Riddick
Quarterbacks
   Starter: Matthew Stafford
   Depth  Connor Cook


Defense (25 Players)
It is safe to say that the defense got the Lion's share of the free agency money this year but they were not ignored in this year's draft class either. The Lions made an odd seaming pick in the second round with Jahlani Tavai , linebacker from Hawaii. Tavai is a do it all linebacker and is being primed to take over for Christian Jones and JRM as the third linebacker on the field for the starting defense at some point in the season. Will Harris will likely be used the same way Killebrew was in 2016 in a dime package as a box safety. Austin Bryant will be a rotational piece on the defensive line and will likely be used like Ziggy was in obvious passing situations. Amani Oruwariye has a chance of winning the starting outside corner spot either out of the gate or a some point in the season. PJ Johnson is likely a long term developmental prospect/ eventual replacement for Snacks Harrison at nose tackle. With the changes made as a result of this draft class we will likely have seen the last of Jalen Reeves Maybin and Tavon Wilson as the team looks to get younger and bigger on defense.

Defensive Line
  Starters: Da'Shawn Hand - A'Shawn Robinson - Damon Harrison - Trey Flowers
  Depth: Romeo Okwara - John Atkins - PJ Johnson - Austin Bryant
Line Backers 
  Starters: Devon Kennard - Jarrad Davis -Jahlani Tavai
  Depth:  Christian Jones - Steve Longa - Miles Killebrew
Corner Backs
  Starters: Darius Slay - Justin Coleman - Rashaan Melvin
  Depth: Teez Tabor - Jamal Agnew - Amani Oruwariye
Safeties
  Starters: Quandre Diggs - Tracy Walker
  Depth: Will Harris - Andrew Adams - Charles Washington

Special Teams (3 Players)
Punter: Sam Martin
Kicker: Matt Prater
Long Snapper: Don Muhlbach

Kick Returner: Tommylee Lewis
Punt Returner: Jamal Agnew

Conclusion 
The Lions address most of their needs between free agency and the draft in the 2019 off season (The off season improvement really began in the middle of last season with the trade for Damon Harrison). The two biggest needs for the Detroit Football Lions is an Obvious start at both Right Guard and Outside Corner opposite of Darius Slay. In both of those instances though the team has at least three players who can legitimately compete for those starting positions. The tight end squad turns form a weakness to a position of strength and the Depth issue I saw on the Defensive line looks like it has been filled quite nicely. I will be doing more in-depth analysis posts during the long summer off season taking a look at where I think the team is going on both offense and defense.

Lions Blog: Reaction to first round pick, Day 2 Predictions

Day one Reaction 
The Pick is in... and with the number 8 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Detroit Football Lions select T.J. Hockenson, Tight End from Iowa.

This is the prediction I made and for once on this here blog of mine I was right. With this pick the team has finally moved on from Eric Ebron and embraced its destiny as the new New England Patriots. Matthew Stafford now has a weapon that will be catching pass from him for years to come and the team finally has a good all around and reliable tight end that can not only catch the football but block as well. T.J. also come from Iowa which runs a NFL style offense so as a result his transition to the pro level should be quicker than normal for a rookie tight end. Above all I believe this pick will result in the Lions running two tight ends sets much more often which will help not only the passing game but the run game as well. The team may even make the two tight end (also known as a 12 man formation) their base starting offense at some point in the season.

Because I shouldn't do a reaction without giving a grade I will give a grade here. 

I give the T.J. Hockenson Pick by the Detroit Lions an A.

Looking to Day two:
There are a lot of first round quality talent that fell to the second round including a corner that many mocked to the Lions in the first at number 8. I would like to go over a few note worthy ones that the team will be looking at in the second round and perhaps the 3rd round as well. 

According to  this Lions Wire article form today, there are plenty of options for the team to take in the second round. I am looking at the outside corner position opposite of Slay as the next target for Lions general manager Bob Quinn to target in the second round tonight. Looking at the list linked to above I see Byron Murphy, Justin Layne, David Long, Greedy Williams, Amani Oruwariye and Sean Bunting still on the board heading into the second round. I do not expect Murphy to still be there for the Lions at the 11th pick (43rd pick overall) as he should go very early in the second round. I do think there is a good chance that Williams could fall to the Lions thought and considering he was mocked to the team by some, getting Greedy in the second would be a nice move (maybe even a steal). Regardless I am expecting the team to take one of the mentioned corner backs in thew second round. Since I should make a prediction I will go with Greedy Williams to the Lions in the second round (unless the team executes a trade which in that case, throw everything out the window).

Moving to the 3rd round I sense that the team will go either defensive lineman or linebacker and the name that has stuck with me for months now is that of Christian Miller form Alabama who is expected to go somewhere on day two and can play outside as an edge rusher or as a linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Needless to say I am very much looking forward to tonight to see just how wrong (or perhaps right) I will end up being.

Lion's Blog: 2019 Draft Board Analysis

With the 2019 NFL Draft approaching I want to take some time to go through what I believe is the Detroit Lion's draft board. This exercise will be more than just me putting my own values and thoughts but will also feature me trying to get into the Mind of Matt Patricia and the new Patriot way that the Lions have adopted to come to a likely ranking of draft prospects that the team can take with the number 8 pick this year.

Biggest Needs
Just to recap what I wrote earlier the Lions have 5 Needs that can and should be address in this year's draft and they are as follows...

1. Defensive Tackle
2. Linebacker 
3. Tight End
4. Outside Corner
5. Right Guard 

Starter Needs vs. Depth Needs
This ordering does not mean that the team will take these positions in this order in the draft as there is a difference between starting needs and depth needs that will be considered as well. It bears mentioning that starting needs rank as more important than depth needs but in cases where a position lacks enough depth to field a team (such as one that rotates like the defensive line) it can rise to being a bigger need than a that of a starter.

1. Defensive Tackle, Depth
2. Linebacker, Depth
3. Tight End, Starter/ Depth
4. Outside Corner Starter, Starter
5. Right Guard, Starter 

As you can see, the first starter based need on the list is the tight end. This could also be a depth pick if done in the later rounds as the team does have a likely starter with Jessie James. The other to starting needs of outside corner and right guard are both starter needs but do have decent depth. The Tight end spot needs depth and a upgrade at starter and as such ranks higher than this chart shows.
 
 
Lions likely draft Board for first number 8 pick

Setting aside the unlikely event that a Quinnen Williams or a Josh Allen falls to number 8, the likely draft board for the Detroit Lions in the first round goes as follows.

1. T.J. Hockenson, TE
2. Devin White, LB
3. Greedy Williams, CB
4. Jonah Williams, T
5. Trading down

At this point I expect the Lions to use some of their plentiful available cap space to snag a DT in free agency (most likely to bring back Ricky Jean Francois but Suh is not totally out of the question either) and they will likely use a day 2 pick on a hybrid DT/DE as well. I really do not expect the Lions to use a first round pick on the Defensive line this year especially as there is bound to be some first round quality talent that falls to the second the way Robinson fell to the Lions in 2016. The need at corner is bigger than at right guard due to less depth and therefore less competition for the spot opposite of Slay. Trading down would likely only happen if all of the above options were off the board.

Most Likely Pick
I have been aboard the T.J. Hockenson train for so long that I forgot where my stop is. Needless to say I am still on that train. I expect Devin White to be off the board at 8 and even if not, the idea of getting the next Gronkowski (and keeping him away from the Green Bay Packers) to an offense that really needs another credible weapon to be truly effective is too much to pass up
Bottom line, I expect the Detroit Lions to Draft T.J. Hockenson, Tight End from Iowa with the number 8 pick in the 2019 NFL draft. We do not have long to find out how wrong (or right) I am.

Lions Blog: Pre-Draft Depth Chart

With plenty of time left before the draft in late April, I wanted to take a look at where the depth chart for the Detroit Lions currently stands to get a better idea as to where roster depth (or lack therefore of) is. The goal of this exercise to better guide my next post in determining where the team should and will go in next month's draft. There is also the chance of more significant free agency pickups as the team still has plenty of cap space to work with. My Goal is to have a good idea as to where the team is strongest and where it needs to improve with the remainder of the off season.

Offense (26 Players)
The offense struggled mightily last year with the loss of skilled position players due to injury or trades and as a result needed much more attention to make the team competitive this year. While most of the money spent in free agency has gone to the defensive side there was some key additions to the offense this year as well. It is important to note that the only major losses the offense had that will not be here this year (sadly) were Golden Tate and T.J. Lang. While T.J. Jones, Luke Wilson, and Levine Toilolo are also not on the roster, the team's offense still looks very similar now to where it was at the end of the season. The team did recently sign a back up running back in former Rams and Panthers runner C.J. Anderson who looks like the favorite to go behind Kerryon Johnson in the back field. The Lions also brought in more tight end depth (Logan Thomas) and more competition for the recently vacated right guard spot (Oday Aboushi). Here is where the current roster depth chart (and Almost a 53 man chart) stands. 

Offensive Line
Starters: Taylor Decker - Frank Ragnow - Graham Glasgow -Kenny Wiggins - Rick Wagner
Depth:   Andrew Donnal - Joe Dahl - Leo Koloamantangi - Oday Aboushi - Tyrell Crosby

Tight Ends
Jessie James - Micheal Roberts - Logan Thomas

Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay - Marvin Jones - Danny Amendola - Tommylee Lewis - Brandon Powell

Running Backs                                                                                            (Full Backs)
Kerryon Johnson - C.J. Anderson - Zach Zenner - Theo Riddick - (Nick Bellore - Nick Bawden)

Quarter Backs
Matthew Stafford - Connor Cook

Defense (26 Players)
The Defense received the Lion's share of the free agency money spent by the team this year with the addition of Trey Flowers and Justin Coleman. The Lions really started the off season additions to the defense with the mid season trade for Damon (Snacks) Harrison last year, a move that turned them into a top 10 run defense overnight. This free agency period might have turned the defense as a whole into a top 10 or even a top 5 unit. The later addition of Rashaan Melvin gives them some flexibility on the outside corner but the team seems like it is still lacking a true starter opposite of Darius Slay. The  addition of Andrew Adams gives the team depth in the secondary and options for fielding 3 or more safeties at once. The starting players on the Defensive line looks stellar but how is it looking in depth and where do the Linebackers look after Jarrad Davis and Devon Kennard? Here is where the current depth chart stands for the defense.

Defensive Line 
Starters: Da'Shawn Hand - A'Shawn Robinson - Damon Harrison - Trey Flowers
Depth: Romeo Okwara - John Atkins - Eric Lee - Mitchell Loewen

Line Backers
Starters: Devon Kennard - Jarrad Davis
Depth: Jalen Reeves Maybin - Christian Jones - Steve Longa - Trevor Bates - Miles Killebrew

Corner Backs
Starters: Darius Slay - Justin Coleman - Rashaan Melvin
Depth: Teez Tabor - Jamal Agnew - Mike Ford

Safeties
Starters: Quandre Diggs - Tracy Walker
Depth: Tavon Wilson - Andrew Adams - Charles Washington

Roster Strengths and Weaknesses 

Strengths
The obvious strength of the team is the staring defensive line, which is one that will be very difficult for opposing running backs to get any momentum against with so many run stuffers at the ready. The unit should also be much improved at pass rushing with the addition of Flowers and the expected second year jump with Hand.

The offense side is less obvious as it needs more improvements over last year. Looking at it to me the wide receiver group looks pretty strong if everyone is healthy. The Lions will have to decide if they want 4 or 5 wide outs this year. The running back group looks pretty set as well with a good starter and some decent depth. There will be a full back battle between Bellore and Bawden as there likely will be only one FB. The Lions are set with Stafford as the starter (obviously) but might want some competition for the back up role with only Cook in that position.

Needs Starter(s)
The offensive line is good at depth but needs a starter at right guard with the departure of T.J. Lang. As of now the Lions have 4 players who could compete for the starter at RG and for the moment I have put Wiggins at that spot as he was the starter for much of last year. A camp battle between Wiggen, Dahl, Aboushi, and Crosby has a decent chance of yielding a respectable starter, unless the team goes for one early in this year's draft. Most likely the team will take another RG somewhere on day 3 and add yet more competition for that starting spot. 

On defense the team lacks an obvious starter for the outside corner opposite of Slay. I put Melvin there for the moment but is the team can make a upgrade there in the first two days of the draft or in the remainder of free agency I would expect them to do so. As of now it will likely be a camp battle between Tabor and Melvin for that starting spot.

Needs Depth
While the starting defensive line is impressive, less so is the depth behind it. As of now the team has only 3 defensive tackles, which is a heavily rotated position. Flowers can line up as a DT if need be but the team desperately needs more depth in the middle of the line. I would expect the team to address this with a high pick if not before then in free agency (Ndamukong Suh is still out there waiting to be signed). The linebackers are also needed an improvement in depth as they do not have enough talent to field an effective 3-4 defensive front right now. I would not be surprised if the Lions go linebacker with the number 8 pick in the draft. 

On offense the team needs depth at tight end. Jessie James is the likely starter at this point but the team should take advantage of this draft's excellent depth at the position. T.J. Hockenson is the only player who could dislodge James from the starting spot and he would have to be taken in the first round (a decent possibility) but there should be plenty of day two options as well. I expect the team to draft a tight end in the first two days of the draft.

Conclusion 
Looking at the current depth chart has told me more than I expect about the team's needs going into the draft. I think the team's biggest needs are Defensive Tackle (likely a hybrid DT/DE), Line Backer, Tight End, Outside Corner, and a Right Guard, in that order. I honestly expect the team to go after a DT in free agency which could include re-signing Ricky Jean Francois or going after the big fish, Suh (I have heard nothing about this as being plausible, I am just pointing out that he is still unsigned)  I will go into deeper potential draft targets in the next post but I do expect all of those 5 above mentioned positions to be taken in this year's draft.

Lions Blog: Thoughts on first wave of free agency

I just wanted to give some quick thoughts on the first wave of free agency news for the Detroit Lions. This post is not covering the whole of free agency (which never really ends) just the first few days as the big signings get announced and finalized. I start off by mentioning some of the players that were cut just before the start of free agency. I will then touch on each of the free agent signings  and I will end on where the team's needs are as of now.

Who left
Things got kicked off before free agency began with a few key players being released. Two of said players were considering retirement and all freed up significant amounts of cap space.

• Glover Quin, Safety: This was the easiest one to predict as the Lions already had Quin's replacement in house with Tracy Walker. Glover Quin had been thinking about retirement for a couple of season and this year the team made the decision for him. Quin has not retired but is expected to do so. Unlike the two other players released this one does not open up a roster hole as much as it thins depth in the secondary.

• T.J. Lang, Right Guard: This one was a little surprising considering that T.J Lang was willing to take a pay cut to help out the team. I suppose it was clear to the team that the amount of a cut that T.J. would have been willing to take would not have been nearly enough when cutting him would have saved more. T.J. Lang when on the field was the best offensive lineman but that was less than 50% of the time the offense was on the field over his two years in Detroit. T.J. Land has said he is contemplating retirement (likely another reason he was cut) and likely to do so. 

• Nevin Lawson, Corner Back: This one was a complete surprise to me because I figured that Nevin Lawson was a shoe in for a starting position in either the slot or the outside. I also looked at the fact the team needed an upgrade over Teez Tabor on the outside it seemed unlikely to me that the team would open up another hole in the secondary. As with the other pre free agency cuts this one creates yet more cap space for the team to use.

Who we got
 I want to just touch on the bigger signings and what they mean to the team. There have been other signings since the start of free agency but many of those are for depth. I am interested in talking about the big players that will make the big bucks here. I will touch on the other signings in a future article dealing with the current projected depth chart.

• Danny Amendola, Slot Receiver: The Lions made their first move before the start of free agency with the signing of former Dolphin and Patriot slot receiver Danny Amendola, an older player who who will likely fulfill the same role as Anquan Boldin did a few years ago in 2016. Boldin (also an older  slot receiver) was used as a get out of jail free card for Stafford when he was under duress and was counted on to move the chains on 3rd downs. Danny was also used to move the chains and is expected to bring efficiency to Stafford's game.  This was seen as an odd signing as the first move the team made but because Danny was already a free agent the Lions did not have to wait until Wednesday to make the signing official. Danny Amendola was signed to a one year deal worth $4.5-5.75 million. 

• Justin Coleman, Nickle Corner back: The first real move the team made in free agency was also the most controversial in the signing of Justin Coleman and making him the highest paid slot corner in the NFL. This fact was the most talked about aspect of the new Lions Corner and remained so even after it was found out that Coleman also played in New England under now Lions coach Matt Patricia. What has not been talked about enough is the fact the most offenses run with three wide receivers sets about 80% of the time, meaning that defenses have to have a slot or Nickle corner out there for the same amount of the game. The end result is that the nickle corner is basically a starter in today's NFL and should be paid as one. The fact the teams have not valued slot corners as such until now is an indictment of other teams and not the Lions (I do not expect Coleman to remain the highest paid slot corner for long). Justin Coleman has the speed, ball skills and athleticism need to be an effective slot corner and can be effective against the run as well as make plays on the ball. The Lion's base defense is a 3 corner nickle package and Coleman will be a starter as a result. Justin Coleman was signed to a 4 year, $36 Million contract and because of his young age at about 25 he should easily be here for the length of his contract if not beyond. 

• Trey Flowers, Defensive End: The most predictable signing the Lions could make was also the one that many assumed they wouldn't because it was so predictable. Then the team went out and did it, they signed the biggest Defensive end in free agency in Trey Flowers formerly of the New England Patriots. Flowers is a versatile, reliable and effective defensive player who can set up anywhere on the Defensive line and be very effective as a pass rusher and a run stopper. Because of the similarity between the Patriots and Lions defenses Flowers will be an effective plug and player defender who will make an impact from day one. Flowers is also far and away the biggest and most expensive free agent signing by Bob Quinn as general Manage for the Lions. The most concerning thing about the signing is that Flowers has never had more than 7.5 sacks in a season yet he is getting paid as if he regularly gets double digit sacks. This fact may be more to due with the relative lack of talent on the Patriots Defensive line which will not be a problem in Detroit. As I noted earlier Flowers is also very effective in the run game and when lined up next to Snacks Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson should provide the Lions with one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Trey Flowers was signed to a 5 year, $90 million contract and because Trey Flowers is also young at only age 25 there is a good chance he will be here for the full length of the contract. 

• Jesse James, Tight End: The Lions continued their efforts at improving the areas of most need with the best player in free agency with Jessie James, a tight end from Pittsburgh where he always seemed to be under utilized by the Steelers with their high end receivers who always seemed to hog the ball. In Detroit, James is expected to be the starting tight end (unless the Lions Draft Hockenson in the first round)  and is hoping to be utilized as a 3rd down and red zone threat and should also provide an effective blocker in the passing game. Even if the Lions go tight end in the first round James should still see the field most of the time as the team will likely use substantial more two tight end sets under the new Offensive coordinator Darrell Beville. Jessie James signed a 4 year contract worth $25 million and at age 24 is another young player brought on board this year. 

Leftover needs after Free Agency Bonanza 
The team has made several more signings as of now and more will be made but many of them are for depth and I just wanted to go over the big ones in this post.  Going forward with both the remainder of free agency and the draft the team still has plenty of needs and wants for their roster to be ready for the 2019 season. I am just gonna mention those  here and do a more comprehensive post later that will incorporate a current projected depth chart based on all of the free agent signings.

• 2nd/ change of pace Running back: Kerryon Johnson needs a change of pace/ backup/ 2nd running back to reduce the wear and tear on him and keep him healthy longer so he can get that 1000 yard season that he would have gotten last year. As of now either Zach Zenner or Theo Riddick could fulfill  that role but the team may want to get better options . There are some free agents the team could go after or a day two/three draft pick could be used. 
• 2nd outside Corner back: The Lions have two corner backs penciled in as starters (Slay and Coleman) and still need one more starter on the outside. It seems like Teez Tabor is still in the mix to compete for that job but the Lions may want a sure fire starter this year to give Teez more time to grow into that spot.There are some options left in free agency but If the team wants to move on form tabor completely they may look to the first or second day of the draft. The lions do have some other in house options like Ford and Agnew to take a look at as well. 
• Right Guard: The cutting and expected retirement of T.J. Lang has left the team with out a starting right guard and an incomplete offensive line as a result. In the past Bob Quinn would look to a high draft pick to address this issue and he could do so again. The Lions could also go with an in house solution and some lower level free agent signings to set up a strong competition for the spot. I do expect the team to take a right guard at some point in this year's draft, it is just a matter of where. 
• 3rd starting Linebacker: While Kennard and Davis are locked in at starting linebacker positions the team does not have a clear 3rd or 4th linebacker for traditional 3-4 or 4-3 defensive sets. As a hybrid defense the team needs more linebackers and will get some in at least the draft if not later free agency signings. I think the team wants upgrades to Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Christian Jones at those spots as well as increase depth.   
• Defensive Lineman depth: The starting defensive line looks really strong but it lacks rotational depth and will be addressed in the draft in maybe in free agency as well. This draft class is very strong and deep on defensive line players and the team should get solid player(s) in the first two days.  
• 2nd or 1st Tight End: While Jessie James can be a serviceable starting tight end and the Lions still have Roberts as an end zone threat/ developmental project the team will likely take another tight end in the draft. I continue to favor the selection of T.J. Hockenson from Iowa but I have no idea as to the likelihood of that actually happening. 
• Backup Quarter Back: The team signed Connor Cook as a backup this off season but will likely take another QB in day 3 of the draft to set up some competition to be Stafford's backup/ clipboard carrier.  

Conclusion
I have been following the Lions free agency signings since at least 2013 when the team brought in Reggie Bush (the last 1000 yard rusher for the team) and this is in my opinion the most aggressive the team have been in free agency by far. Bob Quinn quickly and decisively went out a grabbed the best players at positions of need. He spent most of the money of defense while adding a couple of interesting weapons for Stafford to play with on offense. More importantly, Bob Quinn has done what he always intends to do which is fill holes in the roster with free agency and set himself up to take the best player available and build depth in the draft. Needless to say I can not wait until the Draft in late April and of course for the start of the 2019 season in September.  

Lions Blog: 2019 Off Season, Aggressive Prediction

Thanks to the hard and tireless work of the Team's unofficial recruiter Damon (Snacks) Harrison, I now have a clear image of my 2019 Aggressive Off Season Prediction. Snacks has been active on Twitter trying to convince former Giants Teammates (and one former Lions) to join the team. I don't really know what the chances of success his campaign has in convincing these players to come here or in the Lions front office in pursuing them but at lease it good to see someone like that actively promoting the team to quality free agent prospects. To that end, I give Snacks most of the credit for this blog post. I have pretty much cut and pasted the text I wrote on the

With my Aggressive Prediction I am going heavy on offense. There are some similar names in this to the Conservative Prediction, In fact there are a lot of the same names. As such, I have pretty much cut and pasted the text I wrote on the same players from the previous prediction as the reasons are still the same.  To me, the similarities make this prediction more plausible. This prediction also includes an aggressive trade for a big name Wide Receiver (but not the one that some people seem to want) and if executed it promises to make give this Detroit Lions team one physical defense and one very scary offense.

Free Agency

• Landon Collins: Safety: This is the big name that has been talked about over the last few days, Landon Collins is the type of player that does not (or should not) hit free agency. He is in his mid 20s and has already been a pro bowler. Collins is a physical box safety that can line up as a pass rusher, can be a big run stopper, and is a very physical tackler. He is also from the New York Football Giants where the Lions have acquired a few successful defensive players. A player this young and experienced does not hit free agency and it is coming at a time when the Lions just released Glover Quin and thus gained some cap space and opened up a roster spot (not to mention a roster hole) for such a player. The Lions may not be as high on Tracy Walker being the immediate replacement for Glover Quin (they may not see that as being his role anyway) and considering how Collins style of play meshes so well with what Coach Matt Patricia wants out of a defender, I believe that Landon Collins is the most likely big named free agent to be signed by the Detroit Lions. 
• Golden Tate: WR: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.
• Marshawn Lynch: RB: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
• Odell Beckham JR.: WR (Traded from NYG): This is an odd one but I am simply following the Damon Harrison Twitter train on it. To be clear Odell Beckham Jr is not a free agent but he is rumored to be on the trading block. The New York Football Giants have been ditching most of their star players in the last year or so and have been doing so with almost reckless abandonment. It would not surprise me to see them trade OBJ for less than what they should. I am thinking Marvin Jones and a third round pick would get the job done. This would free up some additional cap space and it would give the Lions a Wide Receiver trio of Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, and Odell Beckham jr. In other words, the Lions would have the best passing offense in the NFC, if not the whole NFL (it would certainty be the scariest).   

Players Re-Signed

• Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth. 
• Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well. 
• Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.   
• Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign. 

Trades and Departures

• Marvin Jones: WR, Traded to NYG: While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I see them using a trade opportunity with a team that is shedding its talent at a discount rate to land what many fans in Detroit Lions land really wanted in the first round pick from 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. To be fair, I am the least sure about the likely-hood of this part of the prediction. I think this element makes this scenario all the more aggressive (and crazy) and would likely please quite a few fans as well.    
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
• LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back. 
• Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
• Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back. 

Draft

• 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: The Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense. 
• 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE:An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.
• 3rd Round: Traded to NYG
• 4th: Round: Right Guard: While I did fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year, that is not happening. As a result, I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes). 
• Later Rounds:Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad. 

Conclusion
I really wanted to get this post out the door before the Sunday rumors involving free agent deals hit to make sure I get proven wrong (or right?) on these predictions. In this one I went heavy on Offense and with the exception of a second round pick mostly ignores the growing demand among teams for dedicated pass rush specialist. I think that Matt Patricia Values run defense, tackling, versatility and physicality in his defenders far more than pass rushing skills and this prediction falls in line with that. On offense it is less realistic and therefore less likely but more interesting none the less. It give the Lions the best trio of Wide Receivers and the top Tight Ends in this very good class in that position. When pair with what I believe is still one of the best passers in the game (Stafford) and a strong one two punch running back duo (Johnson and Lynch)  this would be a nightmare scenario for every defense in the league and would make it the easy favorite to win the division and more. 

Lions Blog: 2019 Off Season, Conservative Prediction

I have treated this blog as sort of a chore since I have started it. I tend to guilt myself into writing when most of the time I don't fell like it (hence my lack of consistency and frequency in posting) . I started this blog because I spent a lot of time either thinking or talking about football and my Detroit Lions that it is a shame that I can't make an interesting hobby out of it and blogging about it with a blog I already had made was the best idea I came up with. With this post I am having a little fun for a change as I am coming up with some hypothetical off season moves in free agency and the draft for 2019. I was going to do two predictions, one conservative and one aggressive in the same post but I am breaking those ideas up into two separate posts to speed up the time to when one of them gets posted.

For my conservative prediction I am going with the theme of familiarity on both offense and defense. This familiarity has more to do with the coaching staff than with fans (but it does bring back one fan favorite). In free agency this scenario plays it safe and goes with players that both the head coach and the new offensive coordinator have played with before. In the draft it brings a first round trade and what will be an unpopular selection (but a safe and good one), more familiarity with a second round pick, a 3rd round schematic fit on offense and some long term replacement picks on day 3. 


Free Agency 

• Trey Flowers, Defensive End: The most predictable and familiar thing the Lions could do is go with another (hopefully) soon to be ex-Patriot that head coach Matt Patricia worked with, especially if that is a defensive line man. Trey Flowers has been a common choice for the Lions to go after in free agency and that will make this a boring prediction for many. Flowers also happens to be the best player available (Assuming he is) at the position of most need for the Lions (a pass rushing defensive end) and schematically fits with what Patricia is doing to the team like a glove. 
• Marshawn Lynch, Running Back: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
• Golden Tate, Wide Receiver: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.

Players Re-Signed: I just wanted to mention some of the notable Lions pending free agents that I expect the team to re-sign. I'm not suggesting that players not on this list won't be back, I will bring up the no signs in the Trades and Departures section.

• Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth. 
• Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well. 
• Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.   
• Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign. 

Trades and Departures 

• Marvin Jones, WR (Trade): While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I think Jones's role in the offense will be phased out by the new O.C. and will be replaced by the return of Golden Tate. I expect the team to use 3 Wide receivers less often and go with more 2 tight ends/ running backs combos and make more use of full backs. I expect Jones to be part of a trade that nets the Lions an additional 2nd round pick as they drop back in the first. 
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
• LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back. 
• Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
• Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back. 

Draft
The Lions have 9 picks in this years draft with 2 picks in the 6th and 7th rounds. I am predicting the team will trade back in the first round to get and extra 2nd round pick. As I do not have much knowledge about specific players the Lions should target, I have a couple of ideals in the first couple of rounds. Most of this prediction will be position based.

• 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: Having traded away their number 8 pick to somewhere in the 14, 15 range (as well as Marvin Jones),  the Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense. 
• 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE: An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.   
• 2nd Round: Corner Back: With most of the defensive line needs taken care of the Lions choose a corner back with their second 2nd round pick. I have not been able to gleam any specific player the team could pick but since GM Bob Quinn has tried every year in both the draft and free agency to find a corner opposite of Darius Slay it is likely he will do so again this year. This seems to be a decent class for corners as well. I would expect this player to be a rotational player with Teez Tabor until one of them comes out ahead. 
• 3rd Round: Slot Receiver: Even though this conservative prediction has the Lions bringing back Golden Tate, he will not return to the slot position he was in 2017-2018. Instead, Tate will take on the normal wide out role he served so well with Seattle and his first years in Detroit. With this in mind, the team will take a slot receiver in the 3rd round. One thing I have learned is that the new O.C. Bevell likes big slot receivers and as such I expect the team to go after one. 
• 4th Round: Right Guard: While I do fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year he is nearing his retirement point and the team should be ready with his long term backup in hand. I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes). 
• Later Rounds: Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad. 

Conclusion
The Lions go safe in free agency getting players that the coaching staff has worked with before and filled the biggest hole on the defense (Defensive end) with the best player on the market (Flowers). The team gets back a fan Favorite (Tate) and an effective change of pace back to go with Johnson (Lynch). In the Draft the team gets another pick and fills the biggest need on offense (Tight End) with the best player in the class ( Hockenson) and adding depth at key positions in later rounds. This is a conservative strategy but one that takes care of most if not all of the team's needs and would I think make it a strong NFC contender in 2019.