With my Aggressive Prediction I am going heavy on offense. There are some similar names in this to the Conservative Prediction, In fact there are a lot of the same names. As such, I have pretty much cut and pasted the text I wrote on the same players from the previous prediction as the reasons are still the same. To me, the similarities make this prediction more plausible. This prediction also includes an aggressive trade for a big name Wide Receiver (but not the one that some people seem to want) and if executed it promises to make give this Detroit Lions team one physical defense and one very scary offense.
Free Agency
- Landon Collins: Safety: This is the big name that has been talked about over the last few days, Landon Collins is the type of player that does not (or should not) hit free agency. He is in his mid 20s and has already been a pro bowler. Collins is a physical box safety that can line up as a pass rusher, can be a big run stopper, and is a very physical tackler. He is also from the New York Football Giants where the Lions have acquired a few successful defensive players. A player this young and experienced does not hit free agency and it is coming at a time when the Lions just released Glover Quin and thus gained some cap space and opened up a roster spot (not to mention a roster hole) for such a player. The Lions may not be as high on Tracy Walker being the immediate replacement for Glover Quin (they may not see that as being his role anyway) and considering how Collins style of play meshes so well with what Coach Matt Patricia wants out of a defender, I believe that Landon Collins is the most likely big named free agent to be signed by the Detroit Lions.
- Golden Tate: WR: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.
- Marshawn Lynch: RB: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
- Odell Beckham JR.: WR (Traded from NYG): This is an odd one but I am simply following the Damon Harrison Twitter train on it. To be clear Odell Beckham Jr is not a free agent but he is rumored to be on the trading block. The New York Football Giants have been ditching most of their star players in the last year or so and have been doing so with almost reckless abandonment. It would not surprise me to see them trade OBJ for less than what they should. I am thinking Marvin Jones and a third round pick would get the job done. This would free up some additional cap space and it would give the Lions a Wide Receiver trio of Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, and Odell Beckham jr. In other words, the Lions would have the best passing offense in the NFC, if not the whole NFL (it would certainty be the scariest).
Players Re-Signed
- Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth.
- Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well.
- Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.
- Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign.
Trades and Departures
- Marvin Jones: WR, Traded to NYG: While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I see them using a trade opportunity with a team that is shedding its talent at a discount rate to land what many fans in Detroit Lions land really wanted in the first round pick from 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. To be fair, I am the least sure about the likely-hood of this part of the prediction. I think this element makes this scenario all the more aggressive (and crazy) and would likely please quite a few fans as well.
- Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
- LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back.
- Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
- Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back.
Draft
- 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: The Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense.
- 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE:An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.
- 3rd Round: Traded to NYG
- 4th: Round: Right Guard: While I did fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year, that is not happening. As a result, I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes).
- Later Rounds:Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad.
Conclusion
I really wanted to get this post out the door before the Sunday rumors involving free agent deals hit to make sure I get proven wrong (or right?) on these predictions. In this one I went heavy on Offense and with the exception of a second round pick mostly ignores the growing demand among teams for dedicated pass rush specialist. I think that Matt Patricia Values run defense, tackling, versatility and physicality in his defenders far more than pass rushing skills and this prediction falls in line with that. On offense it is less realistic and therefore less likely but more interesting none the less. It give the Lions the best trio of Wide Receivers and the top Tight Ends in this very good class in that position. When pair with what I believe is still one of the best passers in the game (Stafford) and a strong one two punch running back duo (Johnson and Lynch) this would be a nightmare scenario for every defense in the league and would make it the easy favorite to win the division and more.
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