Lions Blog: 2019 Off Season, Conservative Prediction

I have treated this blog as sort of a chore since I have started it. I tend to guilt myself into writing when most of the time I don't fell like it (hence my lack of consistency and frequency in posting) . I started this blog because I spent a lot of time either thinking or talking about football and my Detroit Lions that it is a shame that I can't make an interesting hobby out of it and blogging about it with a blog I already had made was the best idea I came up with. With this post I am having a little fun for a change as I am coming up with some hypothetical off season moves in free agency and the draft for 2019. I was going to do two predictions, one conservative and one aggressive in the same post but I am breaking those ideas up into two separate posts to speed up the time to when one of them gets posted.

For my conservative prediction I am going with the theme of familiarity on both offense and defense. This familiarity has more to do with the coaching staff than with fans (but it does bring back one fan favorite). In free agency this scenario plays it safe and goes with players that both the head coach and the new offensive coordinator have played with before. In the draft it brings a first round trade and what will be an unpopular selection (but a safe and good one), more familiarity with a second round pick, a 3rd round schematic fit on offense and some long term replacement picks on day 3. 


Free Agency 

• Trey Flowers, Defensive End: The most predictable and familiar thing the Lions could do is go with another (hopefully) soon to be ex-Patriot that head coach Matt Patricia worked with, especially if that is a defensive line man. Trey Flowers has been a common choice for the Lions to go after in free agency and that will make this a boring prediction for many. Flowers also happens to be the best player available (Assuming he is) at the position of most need for the Lions (a pass rushing defensive end) and schematically fits with what Patricia is doing to the team like a glove. 
• Marshawn Lynch, Running Back: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
• Golden Tate, Wide Receiver: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.

Players Re-Signed: I just wanted to mention some of the notable Lions pending free agents that I expect the team to re-sign. I'm not suggesting that players not on this list won't be back, I will bring up the no signs in the Trades and Departures section.

• Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth. 
• Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well. 
• Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.   
• Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign. 

Trades and Departures 

• Marvin Jones, WR (Trade): While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I think Jones's role in the offense will be phased out by the new O.C. and will be replaced by the return of Golden Tate. I expect the team to use 3 Wide receivers less often and go with more 2 tight ends/ running backs combos and make more use of full backs. I expect Jones to be part of a trade that nets the Lions an additional 2nd round pick as they drop back in the first. 
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
• LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back. 
• Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
• Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back. 

Draft
The Lions have 9 picks in this years draft with 2 picks in the 6th and 7th rounds. I am predicting the team will trade back in the first round to get and extra 2nd round pick. As I do not have much knowledge about specific players the Lions should target, I have a couple of ideals in the first couple of rounds. Most of this prediction will be position based.

• 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: Having traded away their number 8 pick to somewhere in the 14, 15 range (as well as Marvin Jones),  the Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense. 
• 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE: An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.   
• 2nd Round: Corner Back: With most of the defensive line needs taken care of the Lions choose a corner back with their second 2nd round pick. I have not been able to gleam any specific player the team could pick but since GM Bob Quinn has tried every year in both the draft and free agency to find a corner opposite of Darius Slay it is likely he will do so again this year. This seems to be a decent class for corners as well. I would expect this player to be a rotational player with Teez Tabor until one of them comes out ahead. 
• 3rd Round: Slot Receiver: Even though this conservative prediction has the Lions bringing back Golden Tate, he will not return to the slot position he was in 2017-2018. Instead, Tate will take on the normal wide out role he served so well with Seattle and his first years in Detroit. With this in mind, the team will take a slot receiver in the 3rd round. One thing I have learned is that the new O.C. Bevell likes big slot receivers and as such I expect the team to go after one. 
• 4th Round: Right Guard: While I do fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year he is nearing his retirement point and the team should be ready with his long term backup in hand. I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes). 
• Later Rounds: Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad. 

Conclusion
The Lions go safe in free agency getting players that the coaching staff has worked with before and filled the biggest hole on the defense (Defensive end) with the best player on the market (Flowers). The team gets back a fan Favorite (Tate) and an effective change of pace back to go with Johnson (Lynch). In the Draft the team gets another pick and fills the biggest need on offense (Tight End) with the best player in the class ( Hockenson) and adding depth at key positions in later rounds. This is a conservative strategy but one that takes care of most if not all of the team's needs and would I think make it a strong NFC contender in 2019.

Lion's Blog: Off Season Preview

It is the off season for the Detroit Football Lions and its time for me to collect some thoughts on what I think the team is going to do to set themselves up for success in the 2019 NFL season. We have a new offensive coordinator in Darrel Bevell and a top ten pick in the 2019 NFL draft as well as a expected middle of the pack amount of salary cap space going into free agency. The team also has some holes to fill on the roster as well as some dept to deepen and some tough (or not so tough) decisions to make on some players and whether or not they will still be with the team come September. This is a lot of ground to cover and I would like to get this posted before free agency to give myself a chance to make some predictions and see if they turn out to be correct (or not).


Jim Bob Cooter Out, Darrel Bevell in at Offensive Coordinator

• Who is he

According to this Pride of Detroit article from 1-16-2019 by Jeremy Reisman, Darrel Bevell served as the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings from 2006-2010 and the same position with the Seattle Sea Hawks from 2011-2017 where he ran a run heavy offense that was lead by some big name running backs such as Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime periods. He was with the Sea Hawks went they went to back to back appearances in the Super Bowl, winning one of them and losing the other on a bad play call when instead of plowing the ball into the end zone at the goal line with Lynch he had Russel Wilson throw the ball which resulted in a game ending interception.

• What he brings to Detroit

What I have heard is that Bevell brings a quarterback friendly offensive coordinator that features a heavy run game and big plays in the passing game. He seems to likes to use a dual of running backs as opposed to the committee the Lions have been going with. Darrel Bevell also really likes to use full backs according to this Lions Wire article dated 1-19-19 by Max Gerber which could help both LB turned FB Nick Bellore and last year's 7th round pick Nick Bawden, whose rookie season was brought to an end during the off season work outs.

• How he changes the team's off season needs 

The new offensive coordinator will most certainty put his stamp on the team's offensive dynamic in his first year. While it might have seemed at the time that his hire was late he was still brought in with plenty of time before the free agency period to asses the needs and the potential of the Lions offense. If you though this new O.C. was going to be out of step with what head coach Mat Patricia wants (ball control, time of possession, and establishing the run) you will be disappointed with the direction Bevell will be taking things. Some of the assets we will need are a good tight end, a big slot receiver, and a change of pace running back to pair with Kerryon Johnson. What the team likely will not get is another big wide out to stretch the field more as Bevel uses less 3 wide receiver sets than previous O.C.s. It doesn't seem like much about the off season needs have changed with the new O.C. as we knew about most of them before this hire. It is now much less likely that the team would go after a trade for Antonio Brown or a big running back like Le'Veon Bell as Bevell likes to pair a lesser back with with a slightly different skill set.

Off Season Needs
Once again the Lions have a large number of needs to fill this off season and on both sides of the football. I just want to go over the needs and the whys for them for both offense and defense even though it will be a little redundant on the offense side. 

Offense

• Tight End

With the regrettable decision to cut Ebron the Lions are still with out a worth while Tight end. Luke Wilson did not make the jump to a number 1 option that I expected like what happened with Marvin Jones or Golden Tate when moving from another team to the Lions. Micheal Roberts may yet turn into the red/ end zone target in his third year (or he may be cut) but he was never destined to be the starting tight end. Levine Toilolo was brought in to be a blocker and proved to be the best of the bunch at receiving as well. The team needs a big athletic tight end (like an Ebron) that is also decent at blocking. The new O.C. is less likely to use 3 wide receivers and will be more reliant on tight ends, extra running backs and full backs. The Tight end is easily the team's biggest need on the offense.

• Change of Pace Running Back

Everything that has been said about Kerryon Johnson has been proven to be true. He is the starting running back of the future for the Lions and is easily the best the team has had since one Barry Sanders. He has good vision, good patience  and good explosiveness off the line. He can burst through small gaps and make the big plays while breaking tackles and making defenders trip over themselves.  He also had some injury concern that was proven correct as he missed half of his rookie year (although had the team made the playoffs he would have returned before the end of the season). He is the starting back but he may not have the durability to be an every down feature back. As such he needs an effective rotational back to complement him. Bevell, the new O.C. has plenty of experience with this setup in both Minnesota and Seattle and pairing Johnson with a complementary back will be a high priority for the team. 

• Wide Receiver(s)

The also regrettable decision to trade Golden Tate to the Eagles left a Lions offense with a lack of punch and scoring ability. While it had a bigger impact on the team's numbers it is also more understandable as the team is moving in a different direction on offense that will not use the slot receiver in the same way and will likely bigger a larger slot receiver being anyway. It is also not so bad because it can be reversed as Golden Tate will most likely be allowed to enter free agency and since he was close to a long term deal with the Lions before being traded he could be open to coming back. Also, our new offensive coordinator is his old O.C. where he was not a slot receiver in Seattle. The Lions could get a new Big slot receiver and bring back Golden Tate and use him like he was before he went to the slot. This is how the team could end up getting two wide receivers this year.

• Offensive Guard 

Regardless of whether T.J. Lang retires, gets cut or except a pay cut on his current deal to stay with the team, the Lions will need a long term replacement at right guard. All signs point to Lang wanting to stay one more year and he indicated he would take less money to do so. When healthy, T.J. is the best offensive lineman on the team, he just hasn't been healthy enough as he has missed half of the games since coming to Detroit. I think the team needs to get away from the high price offensive linemen and replacing older players with cheaper younger ones would help the team at its position player needs. I would like T.J. Lang to stay one more year and help a new right guard transition to a starting role but not if it means T.J. taking a big pay cut that pays him less than what he is worth.

Defense 

• Defensive End (or two) 

The Team's biggest need on defense and overall is for defensive ends. Assuming that Ezekiel Ansah departs in free agency (which seems like a safe on at this point) the team is going to need to get two starting defensive ends this off season. The need for additional pass rushing talent on this team has been talked about to the point of over kill by pundits over the past few years since Bob Quinn took over as general manager. After addressing the teams needs at offensive line, running backs and linebackers in previous years this year seems like the year to take it on in full force. Both the draft and free agency are full of pass rushing options in defensive ends and tackles that it is impossible to imagine the Lions not putting in the bulk of their defensive efforts to this end.

• Corner Back

The Lions have been looking for a good outside corner opposite of Darius Slay for years now and they are no closer with their efforts now after multiple lower free agents and a second round pick. Getting a corner this off season may be more difficult this season it is the toughest position for rookies to adjust to from college, which makes drafting them a hard sell if you are trying to get a starter in any given year (just ask Slay how his rookie season was). If the team was able to get a starter this off season then they could effectively complete their secondary but I don't think that is a realistic option given the teams other needs or the limited options in free agency this year.

Player Acquisitions 
I just want to mention some positions and where I think the team is going to get them in this year's off season. I will address specific players in later article posts on this here blog.

• Free Agency

I would expect the team to get at least one defensive end and one running back in free agency. The tight end selection here is not great but there could be a worth while starter at corner. If the team is looking for a wide out in free agency than there are some good choices here (including and old fan favorite). Finally , even though defensive tackle is not a pressing need, there are some good options available here as well. 

• 2019 NFL Draft

This draft class is deep right where the Lions depth is shallow, at Defensive ends and tight ends. This being the case, I expect the team to address both in the draft. Either one could be a first round pick with the other being the second. I expect the team to also target a Slot receiver and a right guard as T.J. Lang's long term replacement (regardless of whether he plays for one more year). Finally this is also a draft class for corners so its possible the team will get one here. It should be said that the corner back is the hardest position for rookies to adjust to in the NFL and we should not expect to get a day one starter but rather a longer term project.

• Trades

With the rumors of the Steelers wanting to trade Antonio Brown, I should say that I do not expect the Lions to be part of such a trade. In fact I do not expect the team to be acquiring any specific player in a trade. There is a good chance that the Lions could get some draft movement from trading away a specific player that I will cover in a later post.

This is going to be an exciting off season for me to watch as the team has plenty of cap space and a high draft pick and is closer (I believe anyway) to being a contender than their 6-10 record from this past year would indicate. I fully expect some big free agency moves that will turn head around the league and perhaps even an aggressive draft strategy. My next post will be on some possible scenarios  covering both free agency and the draft. I will do a conservative and an aggressive strategy with both of them having some degree of plausibility.