It is the off season for the Detroit Football Lions and its time for me to collect some thoughts on what I think the team is going to do to set themselves up for success in the 2019 NFL season. We have a new offensive coordinator in Darrel Bevell and a top ten pick in the 2019 NFL draft as well as a expected middle of the pack amount of salary cap space going into free agency. The team also has some holes to fill on the roster as well as some dept to deepen and some tough (or not so tough) decisions to make on some players and whether or not they will still be with the team come September. This is a lot of ground to cover and I would like to get this posted before free agency to give myself a chance to make some predictions and see if they turn out to be correct (or not).
Jim Bob Cooter Out, Darrel Bevell in at Offensive Coordinator
According to
this Pride of Detroit article from 1-16-2019 by Jeremy Reisman, Darrel Bevell served as the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings from 2006-2010 and the same position with the Seattle Sea Hawks from 2011-2017 where he ran a run heavy offense that was lead by some big name running backs such as Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime periods. He was with the Sea Hawks went they went to back to back appearances in the Super Bowl, winning one of them and losing the other on a bad play call when instead of plowing the ball into the end zone at the goal line with Lynch he had Russel Wilson throw the ball which resulted in a game ending interception.
- What he brings to Detroit
What I have heard is that Bevell brings a quarterback friendly offensive coordinator that features a heavy run game and big plays in the passing game. He seems to likes to use a dual of running backs as opposed to the committee the Lions have been going with. Darrel Bevell also really likes to use full backs according to
this Lions Wire article dated 1-19-19 by Max Gerber which could help both LB turned FB Nick Bellore and last year's 7th round pick Nick Bawden, whose rookie season was brought to an end during the off season work outs.
- How he changes the team's off season needs
The new offensive coordinator will most certainty put his stamp on the team's offensive dynamic in his first year. While it might have seemed at the time that his hire was late he was still brought in with plenty of time before the free agency period to asses the needs and the potential of the Lions offense. If you though this new O.C. was going to be out of step with what head coach Mat Patricia wants (ball control, time of possession, and establishing the run) you will be disappointed with the direction Bevell will be taking things. Some of the assets we will need are a good tight end, a big slot receiver, and a change of pace running back to pair with Kerryon Johnson. What the team likely will not get is another big wide out to stretch the field more as Bevel uses less 3 wide receiver sets than previous O.C.s. It doesn't seem like much about the off season needs have changed with the new O.C. as we knew about most of them before this hire. It is now much less likely that the team would go after a trade for Antonio Brown or a big running back like Le'Veon Bell as Bevell likes to pair a lesser back with with a slightly different skill set.
Off Season Needs
Once again the Lions have a large number of needs to fill this off season and on both sides of the football. I just want to go over the needs and the whys for them for both offense and defense even though it will be a little redundant on the offense side.
Offense
With the regrettable decision to cut Ebron the Lions are still with out a worth while Tight end. Luke Wilson did not make the jump to a number 1 option that I expected like what happened with Marvin Jones or Golden Tate when moving from another team to the Lions. Micheal Roberts may yet turn into the red/ end zone target in his third year (or he may be cut) but he was never destined to be the starting tight end. Levine Toilolo was brought in to be a blocker and proved to be the best of the bunch at receiving as well. The team needs a big athletic tight end (like an Ebron) that is also decent at blocking. The new O.C. is less likely to use 3 wide receivers and will be more reliant on tight ends, extra running backs and full backs. The Tight end is easily the team's biggest need on the offense.
- Change of Pace Running Back
Everything that has been said about Kerryon Johnson has been proven to be true. He is the starting running back of the future for the Lions and is easily the best the team has had since one Barry Sanders. He has good vision, good patience and good explosiveness off the line. He can burst through small gaps and make the big plays while breaking tackles and making defenders trip over themselves. He also had some injury concern that was proven correct as he missed half of his rookie year (although had the team made the playoffs he would have returned before the end of the season). He is the starting back but he may not have the durability to be an every down feature back. As such he needs an effective rotational back to complement him. Bevell, the new O.C. has plenty of experience with this setup in both Minnesota and Seattle and pairing Johnson with a complementary back will be a high priority for the team.
The also regrettable decision to trade Golden Tate to the Eagles left a Lions offense with a lack of punch and scoring ability. While it had a bigger impact on the team's numbers it is also more understandable as the team is moving in a different direction on offense that will not use the slot receiver in the same way and will likely bigger a larger slot receiver being anyway. It is also not so bad because it can be reversed as Golden Tate will most likely be allowed to enter free agency and since he was close to a long term deal with the Lions before being traded he could be open to coming back. Also, our new offensive coordinator is his old O.C. where he was not a slot receiver in Seattle. The Lions could get a new Big slot receiver and bring back Golden Tate and use him like he was before he went to the slot. This is how the team could end up getting two wide receivers this year.
Regardless of whether T.J. Lang retires, gets cut or except a pay cut on his current deal to stay with the team, the Lions will need a long term replacement at right guard. All signs point to Lang wanting to stay one more year and he indicated he would take less money to do so. When healthy, T.J. is the best offensive lineman on the team, he just hasn't been healthy enough as he has missed half of the games since coming to Detroit. I think the team needs to get away from the high price offensive linemen and replacing older players with cheaper younger ones would help the team at its position player needs. I would like T.J. Lang to stay one more year and help a new right guard transition to a starting role but not if it means T.J. taking a big pay cut that pays him less than what he is worth.
Defense
The Team's biggest need on defense and overall is for defensive ends. Assuming that Ezekiel Ansah departs in free agency (which seems like a safe on at this point) the team is going to need to get two starting defensive ends this off season. The need for additional pass rushing talent on this team has been talked about to the point of over kill by pundits over the past few years since Bob Quinn took over as general manager. After addressing the teams needs at offensive line, running backs and linebackers in previous years this year seems like the year to take it on in full force. Both the draft and free agency are full of pass rushing options in defensive ends and tackles that it is impossible to imagine the Lions not putting in the bulk of their defensive efforts to this end.
The Lions have been looking for a good outside corner opposite of Darius Slay for years now and they are no closer with their efforts now after multiple lower free agents and a second round pick. Getting a corner this off season may be more difficult this season it is the toughest position for rookies to adjust to from college, which makes drafting them a hard sell if you are trying to get a starter in any given year (just ask Slay how his rookie season was). If the team was able to get a starter this off season then they could effectively complete their secondary but I don't think that is a realistic option given the teams other needs or the limited options in free agency this year.
Player Acquisitions
I just want to mention some positions and where I think the team is going to get them in this year's off season. I will address specific players in later article posts on this here blog.
I would expect the team to get at least one defensive end and one running back in free agency. The tight end selection here is not great but there could be a worth while starter at corner. If the team is looking for a wide out in free agency than there are some good choices here (including and old fan favorite). Finally , even though defensive tackle is not a pressing need, there are some good options available here as well.
This draft class is deep right where the Lions depth is shallow, at Defensive ends and tight ends. This being the case, I expect the team to address both in the draft. Either one could be a first round pick with the other being the second. I expect the team to also target a Slot receiver and a right guard as T.J. Lang's long term replacement (regardless of whether he plays for one more year). Finally this is also a draft class for corners so its possible the team will get one here. It should be said that the corner back is the hardest position for rookies to adjust to in the NFL and we should not expect to get a day one starter but rather a longer term project.
With the rumors of the Steelers wanting to trade Antonio Brown, I should say that I do not expect the Lions to be part of such a trade. In fact I do not expect the team to be acquiring any specific player in a trade. There is a good chance that the Lions could get some draft movement from trading away a specific player that I will cover in a later post.
This is going to be an exciting off season for me to watch as the team has plenty of cap space and a high draft pick and is closer (I believe anyway) to being a contender than their 6-10 record from this past year would indicate. I fully expect some big free agency moves that will turn head around the league and perhaps even an aggressive draft strategy. My next post will be on some possible scenarios covering both free agency and the draft. I will do a conservative and an aggressive strategy with both of them having some degree of plausibility.
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