Lions Blog: Thoughts on first wave of free agency

I just wanted to give some quick thoughts on the first wave of free agency news for the Detroit Lions. This post is not covering the whole of free agency (which never really ends) just the first few days as the big signings get announced and finalized. I start off by mentioning some of the players that were cut just before the start of free agency. I will then touch on each of the free agent signings  and I will end on where the team's needs are as of now.

Who left
Things got kicked off before free agency began with a few key players being released. Two of said players were considering retirement and all freed up significant amounts of cap space.

• Glover Quin, Safety: This was the easiest one to predict as the Lions already had Quin's replacement in house with Tracy Walker. Glover Quin had been thinking about retirement for a couple of season and this year the team made the decision for him. Quin has not retired but is expected to do so. Unlike the two other players released this one does not open up a roster hole as much as it thins depth in the secondary.

• T.J. Lang, Right Guard: This one was a little surprising considering that T.J Lang was willing to take a pay cut to help out the team. I suppose it was clear to the team that the amount of a cut that T.J. would have been willing to take would not have been nearly enough when cutting him would have saved more. T.J. Lang when on the field was the best offensive lineman but that was less than 50% of the time the offense was on the field over his two years in Detroit. T.J. Land has said he is contemplating retirement (likely another reason he was cut) and likely to do so. 

• Nevin Lawson, Corner Back: This one was a complete surprise to me because I figured that Nevin Lawson was a shoe in for a starting position in either the slot or the outside. I also looked at the fact the team needed an upgrade over Teez Tabor on the outside it seemed unlikely to me that the team would open up another hole in the secondary. As with the other pre free agency cuts this one creates yet more cap space for the team to use.

Who we got
 I want to just touch on the bigger signings and what they mean to the team. There have been other signings since the start of free agency but many of those are for depth. I am interested in talking about the big players that will make the big bucks here. I will touch on the other signings in a future article dealing with the current projected depth chart.

• Danny Amendola, Slot Receiver: The Lions made their first move before the start of free agency with the signing of former Dolphin and Patriot slot receiver Danny Amendola, an older player who who will likely fulfill the same role as Anquan Boldin did a few years ago in 2016. Boldin (also an older  slot receiver) was used as a get out of jail free card for Stafford when he was under duress and was counted on to move the chains on 3rd downs. Danny was also used to move the chains and is expected to bring efficiency to Stafford's game.  This was seen as an odd signing as the first move the team made but because Danny was already a free agent the Lions did not have to wait until Wednesday to make the signing official. Danny Amendola was signed to a one year deal worth $4.5-5.75 million. 

• Justin Coleman, Nickle Corner back: The first real move the team made in free agency was also the most controversial in the signing of Justin Coleman and making him the highest paid slot corner in the NFL. This fact was the most talked about aspect of the new Lions Corner and remained so even after it was found out that Coleman also played in New England under now Lions coach Matt Patricia. What has not been talked about enough is the fact the most offenses run with three wide receivers sets about 80% of the time, meaning that defenses have to have a slot or Nickle corner out there for the same amount of the game. The end result is that the nickle corner is basically a starter in today's NFL and should be paid as one. The fact the teams have not valued slot corners as such until now is an indictment of other teams and not the Lions (I do not expect Coleman to remain the highest paid slot corner for long). Justin Coleman has the speed, ball skills and athleticism need to be an effective slot corner and can be effective against the run as well as make plays on the ball. The Lion's base defense is a 3 corner nickle package and Coleman will be a starter as a result. Justin Coleman was signed to a 4 year, $36 Million contract and because of his young age at about 25 he should easily be here for the length of his contract if not beyond. 

• Trey Flowers, Defensive End: The most predictable signing the Lions could make was also the one that many assumed they wouldn't because it was so predictable. Then the team went out and did it, they signed the biggest Defensive end in free agency in Trey Flowers formerly of the New England Patriots. Flowers is a versatile, reliable and effective defensive player who can set up anywhere on the Defensive line and be very effective as a pass rusher and a run stopper. Because of the similarity between the Patriots and Lions defenses Flowers will be an effective plug and player defender who will make an impact from day one. Flowers is also far and away the biggest and most expensive free agent signing by Bob Quinn as general Manage for the Lions. The most concerning thing about the signing is that Flowers has never had more than 7.5 sacks in a season yet he is getting paid as if he regularly gets double digit sacks. This fact may be more to due with the relative lack of talent on the Patriots Defensive line which will not be a problem in Detroit. As I noted earlier Flowers is also very effective in the run game and when lined up next to Snacks Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson should provide the Lions with one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Trey Flowers was signed to a 5 year, $90 million contract and because Trey Flowers is also young at only age 25 there is a good chance he will be here for the full length of the contract. 

• Jesse James, Tight End: The Lions continued their efforts at improving the areas of most need with the best player in free agency with Jessie James, a tight end from Pittsburgh where he always seemed to be under utilized by the Steelers with their high end receivers who always seemed to hog the ball. In Detroit, James is expected to be the starting tight end (unless the Lions Draft Hockenson in the first round)  and is hoping to be utilized as a 3rd down and red zone threat and should also provide an effective blocker in the passing game. Even if the Lions go tight end in the first round James should still see the field most of the time as the team will likely use substantial more two tight end sets under the new Offensive coordinator Darrell Beville. Jessie James signed a 4 year contract worth $25 million and at age 24 is another young player brought on board this year. 

Leftover needs after Free Agency Bonanza 
The team has made several more signings as of now and more will be made but many of them are for depth and I just wanted to go over the big ones in this post.  Going forward with both the remainder of free agency and the draft the team still has plenty of needs and wants for their roster to be ready for the 2019 season. I am just gonna mention those  here and do a more comprehensive post later that will incorporate a current projected depth chart based on all of the free agent signings.

• 2nd/ change of pace Running back: Kerryon Johnson needs a change of pace/ backup/ 2nd running back to reduce the wear and tear on him and keep him healthy longer so he can get that 1000 yard season that he would have gotten last year. As of now either Zach Zenner or Theo Riddick could fulfill  that role but the team may want to get better options . There are some free agents the team could go after or a day two/three draft pick could be used. 
• 2nd outside Corner back: The Lions have two corner backs penciled in as starters (Slay and Coleman) and still need one more starter on the outside. It seems like Teez Tabor is still in the mix to compete for that job but the Lions may want a sure fire starter this year to give Teez more time to grow into that spot.There are some options left in free agency but If the team wants to move on form tabor completely they may look to the first or second day of the draft. The lions do have some other in house options like Ford and Agnew to take a look at as well. 
• Right Guard: The cutting and expected retirement of T.J. Lang has left the team with out a starting right guard and an incomplete offensive line as a result. In the past Bob Quinn would look to a high draft pick to address this issue and he could do so again. The Lions could also go with an in house solution and some lower level free agent signings to set up a strong competition for the spot. I do expect the team to take a right guard at some point in this year's draft, it is just a matter of where. 
• 3rd starting Linebacker: While Kennard and Davis are locked in at starting linebacker positions the team does not have a clear 3rd or 4th linebacker for traditional 3-4 or 4-3 defensive sets. As a hybrid defense the team needs more linebackers and will get some in at least the draft if not later free agency signings. I think the team wants upgrades to Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Christian Jones at those spots as well as increase depth.   
• Defensive Lineman depth: The starting defensive line looks really strong but it lacks rotational depth and will be addressed in the draft in maybe in free agency as well. This draft class is very strong and deep on defensive line players and the team should get solid player(s) in the first two days.  
• 2nd or 1st Tight End: While Jessie James can be a serviceable starting tight end and the Lions still have Roberts as an end zone threat/ developmental project the team will likely take another tight end in the draft. I continue to favor the selection of T.J. Hockenson from Iowa but I have no idea as to the likelihood of that actually happening. 
• Backup Quarter Back: The team signed Connor Cook as a backup this off season but will likely take another QB in day 3 of the draft to set up some competition to be Stafford's backup/ clipboard carrier.  

Conclusion
I have been following the Lions free agency signings since at least 2013 when the team brought in Reggie Bush (the last 1000 yard rusher for the team) and this is in my opinion the most aggressive the team have been in free agency by far. Bob Quinn quickly and decisively went out a grabbed the best players at positions of need. He spent most of the money of defense while adding a couple of interesting weapons for Stafford to play with on offense. More importantly, Bob Quinn has done what he always intends to do which is fill holes in the roster with free agency and set himself up to take the best player available and build depth in the draft. Needless to say I can not wait until the Draft in late April and of course for the start of the 2019 season in September.  

Lions Blog: 2019 Off Season, Aggressive Prediction

Thanks to the hard and tireless work of the Team's unofficial recruiter Damon (Snacks) Harrison, I now have a clear image of my 2019 Aggressive Off Season Prediction. Snacks has been active on Twitter trying to convince former Giants Teammates (and one former Lions) to join the team. I don't really know what the chances of success his campaign has in convincing these players to come here or in the Lions front office in pursuing them but at lease it good to see someone like that actively promoting the team to quality free agent prospects. To that end, I give Snacks most of the credit for this blog post. I have pretty much cut and pasted the text I wrote on the

With my Aggressive Prediction I am going heavy on offense. There are some similar names in this to the Conservative Prediction, In fact there are a lot of the same names. As such, I have pretty much cut and pasted the text I wrote on the same players from the previous prediction as the reasons are still the same.  To me, the similarities make this prediction more plausible. This prediction also includes an aggressive trade for a big name Wide Receiver (but not the one that some people seem to want) and if executed it promises to make give this Detroit Lions team one physical defense and one very scary offense.

Free Agency

• Landon Collins: Safety: This is the big name that has been talked about over the last few days, Landon Collins is the type of player that does not (or should not) hit free agency. He is in his mid 20s and has already been a pro bowler. Collins is a physical box safety that can line up as a pass rusher, can be a big run stopper, and is a very physical tackler. He is also from the New York Football Giants where the Lions have acquired a few successful defensive players. A player this young and experienced does not hit free agency and it is coming at a time when the Lions just released Glover Quin and thus gained some cap space and opened up a roster spot (not to mention a roster hole) for such a player. The Lions may not be as high on Tracy Walker being the immediate replacement for Glover Quin (they may not see that as being his role anyway) and considering how Collins style of play meshes so well with what Coach Matt Patricia wants out of a defender, I believe that Landon Collins is the most likely big named free agent to be signed by the Detroit Lions. 
• Golden Tate: WR: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.
• Marshawn Lynch: RB: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
• Odell Beckham JR.: WR (Traded from NYG): This is an odd one but I am simply following the Damon Harrison Twitter train on it. To be clear Odell Beckham Jr is not a free agent but he is rumored to be on the trading block. The New York Football Giants have been ditching most of their star players in the last year or so and have been doing so with almost reckless abandonment. It would not surprise me to see them trade OBJ for less than what they should. I am thinking Marvin Jones and a third round pick would get the job done. This would free up some additional cap space and it would give the Lions a Wide Receiver trio of Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, and Odell Beckham jr. In other words, the Lions would have the best passing offense in the NFC, if not the whole NFL (it would certainty be the scariest).   

Players Re-Signed

• Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth. 
• Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well. 
• Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.   
• Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign. 

Trades and Departures

• Marvin Jones: WR, Traded to NYG: While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I see them using a trade opportunity with a team that is shedding its talent at a discount rate to land what many fans in Detroit Lions land really wanted in the first round pick from 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. To be fair, I am the least sure about the likely-hood of this part of the prediction. I think this element makes this scenario all the more aggressive (and crazy) and would likely please quite a few fans as well.    
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
• LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back. 
• Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
• Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back. 

Draft

• 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: The Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense. 
• 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE:An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.
• 3rd Round: Traded to NYG
• 4th: Round: Right Guard: While I did fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year, that is not happening. As a result, I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes). 
• Later Rounds:Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad. 

Conclusion
I really wanted to get this post out the door before the Sunday rumors involving free agent deals hit to make sure I get proven wrong (or right?) on these predictions. In this one I went heavy on Offense and with the exception of a second round pick mostly ignores the growing demand among teams for dedicated pass rush specialist. I think that Matt Patricia Values run defense, tackling, versatility and physicality in his defenders far more than pass rushing skills and this prediction falls in line with that. On offense it is less realistic and therefore less likely but more interesting none the less. It give the Lions the best trio of Wide Receivers and the top Tight Ends in this very good class in that position. When pair with what I believe is still one of the best passers in the game (Stafford) and a strong one two punch running back duo (Johnson and Lynch)  this would be a nightmare scenario for every defense in the league and would make it the easy favorite to win the division and more.