Lions Blog: 2019 Off Season, Conservative Prediction

I have treated this blog as sort of a chore since I have started it. I tend to guilt myself into writing when most of the time I don't fell like it (hence my lack of consistency and frequency in posting) . I started this blog because I spent a lot of time either thinking or talking about football and my Detroit Lions that it is a shame that I can't make an interesting hobby out of it and blogging about it with a blog I already had made was the best idea I came up with. With this post I am having a little fun for a change as I am coming up with some hypothetical off season moves in free agency and the draft for 2019. I was going to do two predictions, one conservative and one aggressive in the same post but I am breaking those ideas up into two separate posts to speed up the time to when one of them gets posted.

For my conservative prediction I am going with the theme of familiarity on both offense and defense. This familiarity has more to do with the coaching staff than with fans (but it does bring back one fan favorite). In free agency this scenario plays it safe and goes with players that both the head coach and the new offensive coordinator have played with before. In the draft it brings a first round trade and what will be an unpopular selection (but a safe and good one), more familiarity with a second round pick, a 3rd round schematic fit on offense and some long term replacement picks on day 3. 


Free Agency 

• Trey Flowers, Defensive End: The most predictable and familiar thing the Lions could do is go with another (hopefully) soon to be ex-Patriot that head coach Matt Patricia worked with, especially if that is a defensive line man. Trey Flowers has been a common choice for the Lions to go after in free agency and that will make this a boring prediction for many. Flowers also happens to be the best player available (Assuming he is) at the position of most need for the Lions (a pass rushing defensive end) and schematically fits with what Patricia is doing to the team like a glove. 
• Marshawn Lynch, Running Back: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
• Golden Tate, Wide Receiver: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.

Players Re-Signed: I just wanted to mention some of the notable Lions pending free agents that I expect the team to re-sign. I'm not suggesting that players not on this list won't be back, I will bring up the no signs in the Trades and Departures section.

• Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth. 
• Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well. 
• Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.   
• Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign. 

Trades and Departures 

• Marvin Jones, WR (Trade): While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I think Jones's role in the offense will be phased out by the new O.C. and will be replaced by the return of Golden Tate. I expect the team to use 3 Wide receivers less often and go with more 2 tight ends/ running backs combos and make more use of full backs. I expect Jones to be part of a trade that nets the Lions an additional 2nd round pick as they drop back in the first. 
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
• LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back. 
• Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
• Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back. 

Draft
The Lions have 9 picks in this years draft with 2 picks in the 6th and 7th rounds. I am predicting the team will trade back in the first round to get and extra 2nd round pick. As I do not have much knowledge about specific players the Lions should target, I have a couple of ideals in the first couple of rounds. Most of this prediction will be position based.

• 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: Having traded away their number 8 pick to somewhere in the 14, 15 range (as well as Marvin Jones),  the Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense. 
• 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE: An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.   
• 2nd Round: Corner Back: With most of the defensive line needs taken care of the Lions choose a corner back with their second 2nd round pick. I have not been able to gleam any specific player the team could pick but since GM Bob Quinn has tried every year in both the draft and free agency to find a corner opposite of Darius Slay it is likely he will do so again this year. This seems to be a decent class for corners as well. I would expect this player to be a rotational player with Teez Tabor until one of them comes out ahead. 
• 3rd Round: Slot Receiver: Even though this conservative prediction has the Lions bringing back Golden Tate, he will not return to the slot position he was in 2017-2018. Instead, Tate will take on the normal wide out role he served so well with Seattle and his first years in Detroit. With this in mind, the team will take a slot receiver in the 3rd round. One thing I have learned is that the new O.C. Bevell likes big slot receivers and as such I expect the team to go after one. 
• 4th Round: Right Guard: While I do fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year he is nearing his retirement point and the team should be ready with his long term backup in hand. I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes). 
• Later Rounds: Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad. 

Conclusion
The Lions go safe in free agency getting players that the coaching staff has worked with before and filled the biggest hole on the defense (Defensive end) with the best player on the market (Flowers). The team gets back a fan Favorite (Tate) and an effective change of pace back to go with Johnson (Lynch). In the Draft the team gets another pick and fills the biggest need on offense (Tight End) with the best player in the class ( Hockenson) and adding depth at key positions in later rounds. This is a conservative strategy but one that takes care of most if not all of the team's needs and would I think make it a strong NFC contender in 2019.

Lion's Blog: Off Season Preview

It is the off season for the Detroit Football Lions and its time for me to collect some thoughts on what I think the team is going to do to set themselves up for success in the 2019 NFL season. We have a new offensive coordinator in Darrel Bevell and a top ten pick in the 2019 NFL draft as well as a expected middle of the pack amount of salary cap space going into free agency. The team also has some holes to fill on the roster as well as some dept to deepen and some tough (or not so tough) decisions to make on some players and whether or not they will still be with the team come September. This is a lot of ground to cover and I would like to get this posted before free agency to give myself a chance to make some predictions and see if they turn out to be correct (or not).


Jim Bob Cooter Out, Darrel Bevell in at Offensive Coordinator

• Who is he

According to this Pride of Detroit article from 1-16-2019 by Jeremy Reisman, Darrel Bevell served as the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings from 2006-2010 and the same position with the Seattle Sea Hawks from 2011-2017 where he ran a run heavy offense that was lead by some big name running backs such as Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime periods. He was with the Sea Hawks went they went to back to back appearances in the Super Bowl, winning one of them and losing the other on a bad play call when instead of plowing the ball into the end zone at the goal line with Lynch he had Russel Wilson throw the ball which resulted in a game ending interception.

• What he brings to Detroit

What I have heard is that Bevell brings a quarterback friendly offensive coordinator that features a heavy run game and big plays in the passing game. He seems to likes to use a dual of running backs as opposed to the committee the Lions have been going with. Darrel Bevell also really likes to use full backs according to this Lions Wire article dated 1-19-19 by Max Gerber which could help both LB turned FB Nick Bellore and last year's 7th round pick Nick Bawden, whose rookie season was brought to an end during the off season work outs.

• How he changes the team's off season needs 

The new offensive coordinator will most certainty put his stamp on the team's offensive dynamic in his first year. While it might have seemed at the time that his hire was late he was still brought in with plenty of time before the free agency period to asses the needs and the potential of the Lions offense. If you though this new O.C. was going to be out of step with what head coach Mat Patricia wants (ball control, time of possession, and establishing the run) you will be disappointed with the direction Bevell will be taking things. Some of the assets we will need are a good tight end, a big slot receiver, and a change of pace running back to pair with Kerryon Johnson. What the team likely will not get is another big wide out to stretch the field more as Bevel uses less 3 wide receiver sets than previous O.C.s. It doesn't seem like much about the off season needs have changed with the new O.C. as we knew about most of them before this hire. It is now much less likely that the team would go after a trade for Antonio Brown or a big running back like Le'Veon Bell as Bevell likes to pair a lesser back with with a slightly different skill set.

Off Season Needs
Once again the Lions have a large number of needs to fill this off season and on both sides of the football. I just want to go over the needs and the whys for them for both offense and defense even though it will be a little redundant on the offense side. 

Offense

• Tight End

With the regrettable decision to cut Ebron the Lions are still with out a worth while Tight end. Luke Wilson did not make the jump to a number 1 option that I expected like what happened with Marvin Jones or Golden Tate when moving from another team to the Lions. Micheal Roberts may yet turn into the red/ end zone target in his third year (or he may be cut) but he was never destined to be the starting tight end. Levine Toilolo was brought in to be a blocker and proved to be the best of the bunch at receiving as well. The team needs a big athletic tight end (like an Ebron) that is also decent at blocking. The new O.C. is less likely to use 3 wide receivers and will be more reliant on tight ends, extra running backs and full backs. The Tight end is easily the team's biggest need on the offense.

• Change of Pace Running Back

Everything that has been said about Kerryon Johnson has been proven to be true. He is the starting running back of the future for the Lions and is easily the best the team has had since one Barry Sanders. He has good vision, good patience  and good explosiveness off the line. He can burst through small gaps and make the big plays while breaking tackles and making defenders trip over themselves.  He also had some injury concern that was proven correct as he missed half of his rookie year (although had the team made the playoffs he would have returned before the end of the season). He is the starting back but he may not have the durability to be an every down feature back. As such he needs an effective rotational back to complement him. Bevell, the new O.C. has plenty of experience with this setup in both Minnesota and Seattle and pairing Johnson with a complementary back will be a high priority for the team. 

• Wide Receiver(s)

The also regrettable decision to trade Golden Tate to the Eagles left a Lions offense with a lack of punch and scoring ability. While it had a bigger impact on the team's numbers it is also more understandable as the team is moving in a different direction on offense that will not use the slot receiver in the same way and will likely bigger a larger slot receiver being anyway. It is also not so bad because it can be reversed as Golden Tate will most likely be allowed to enter free agency and since he was close to a long term deal with the Lions before being traded he could be open to coming back. Also, our new offensive coordinator is his old O.C. where he was not a slot receiver in Seattle. The Lions could get a new Big slot receiver and bring back Golden Tate and use him like he was before he went to the slot. This is how the team could end up getting two wide receivers this year.

• Offensive Guard 

Regardless of whether T.J. Lang retires, gets cut or except a pay cut on his current deal to stay with the team, the Lions will need a long term replacement at right guard. All signs point to Lang wanting to stay one more year and he indicated he would take less money to do so. When healthy, T.J. is the best offensive lineman on the team, he just hasn't been healthy enough as he has missed half of the games since coming to Detroit. I think the team needs to get away from the high price offensive linemen and replacing older players with cheaper younger ones would help the team at its position player needs. I would like T.J. Lang to stay one more year and help a new right guard transition to a starting role but not if it means T.J. taking a big pay cut that pays him less than what he is worth.

Defense 

• Defensive End (or two) 

The Team's biggest need on defense and overall is for defensive ends. Assuming that Ezekiel Ansah departs in free agency (which seems like a safe on at this point) the team is going to need to get two starting defensive ends this off season. The need for additional pass rushing talent on this team has been talked about to the point of over kill by pundits over the past few years since Bob Quinn took over as general manager. After addressing the teams needs at offensive line, running backs and linebackers in previous years this year seems like the year to take it on in full force. Both the draft and free agency are full of pass rushing options in defensive ends and tackles that it is impossible to imagine the Lions not putting in the bulk of their defensive efforts to this end.

• Corner Back

The Lions have been looking for a good outside corner opposite of Darius Slay for years now and they are no closer with their efforts now after multiple lower free agents and a second round pick. Getting a corner this off season may be more difficult this season it is the toughest position for rookies to adjust to from college, which makes drafting them a hard sell if you are trying to get a starter in any given year (just ask Slay how his rookie season was). If the team was able to get a starter this off season then they could effectively complete their secondary but I don't think that is a realistic option given the teams other needs or the limited options in free agency this year.

Player Acquisitions 
I just want to mention some positions and where I think the team is going to get them in this year's off season. I will address specific players in later article posts on this here blog.

• Free Agency

I would expect the team to get at least one defensive end and one running back in free agency. The tight end selection here is not great but there could be a worth while starter at corner. If the team is looking for a wide out in free agency than there are some good choices here (including and old fan favorite). Finally , even though defensive tackle is not a pressing need, there are some good options available here as well. 

• 2019 NFL Draft

This draft class is deep right where the Lions depth is shallow, at Defensive ends and tight ends. This being the case, I expect the team to address both in the draft. Either one could be a first round pick with the other being the second. I expect the team to also target a Slot receiver and a right guard as T.J. Lang's long term replacement (regardless of whether he plays for one more year). Finally this is also a draft class for corners so its possible the team will get one here. It should be said that the corner back is the hardest position for rookies to adjust to in the NFL and we should not expect to get a day one starter but rather a longer term project.

• Trades

With the rumors of the Steelers wanting to trade Antonio Brown, I should say that I do not expect the Lions to be part of such a trade. In fact I do not expect the team to be acquiring any specific player in a trade. There is a good chance that the Lions could get some draft movement from trading away a specific player that I will cover in a later post.

This is going to be an exciting off season for me to watch as the team has plenty of cap space and a high draft pick and is closer (I believe anyway) to being a contender than their 6-10 record from this past year would indicate. I fully expect some big free agency moves that will turn head around the league and perhaps even an aggressive draft strategy. My next post will be on some possible scenarios  covering both free agency and the draft. I will do a conservative and an aggressive strategy with both of them having some degree of plausibility.  

Lions Blog: 2018 Season Postmortem

With the loss to the Bills of Buffalo, The 2018 season for the Detroit Lions effectively ended. While I know I have not been posting much to this blog since the season began, I felt the need and desire to do some posts on sort of a brief autopsy of the season, what I expect to happen in the upcoming off season and finally where I think this team is heading in the future. This is the first in a 3 part series I will be posting between now and the start of free agency in march. I would like to get some predictions in before that stuff happens. If this encourages me to put up more blog posts about one of my favorite topics then that can only be good for me.

Its pretty obvious to say that the 2018 NFL season was a disappointing one for the Detroit Lions. I was convinced that the team was heading to an easy NFC North title and at least one playoff win. Clearly that did not happen as nothing about the season was easy for my professional football team. It is also easy to dwell on only the negatives after such a season and ignore the hand full of good developments that happened that could result in legitimate optimism for the coming year. I intend to avoid that here in this post.

• Lackluster Offense

The biggest reason for the Lion's disappointing season was its totally lack luster offense. The Lions came in to September they had every reason and right to expect to be one of the most dominant offences in the NFL. The team had the best trio of Wide receivers, a high caliber rookie running back and a veteran Quarterback who can make every throw in the book and many that aren't. Instead and starting with the preseason games, the offence had no personality or rhythm. The receivers seemed out of sync with QB Matthew Stafford and could not make catches to save their own lives. The Lions also did not use their committee of running backs correctly as they often ran short yardage specialist LeGarrette Blount on first downs instead of trusting their rookie Kerryon Johnson. To make matters worse none of the Tight ends made their presence known for most of the season.

Blame for these offensive woes seem to drift between Stafford and the team for cutting Eric Ebron and trading Golden Tate following the team's loss against the Sea Hawks. While the quarterback will always deserve some of the blame for problems for the offense, blaming Stafford has become to go to route for "S.O.L.ers" for years and with the flashes of his "former" greatness that he still shows on the field We know he is capable of doing much better than this. The loss of Ebron and Tate from the roster and the season ending injury to Marvin Jones seems like a better place to start. It is important to note that both Tate and Jones were on the roster and playing for the first halve of the season and the team had those problems with its offense back then as well. Golden Tate was dropping passes and so was Marvin Jones. The Lions did suffer more on the offensive side from the loss of their top receivers as their score average went from 24.4 points per game before Golden Tate was traded to just 17 afterwards. Ebron was cut from the team before the season began  so measuring the impact of his departure is harder to do. I still think that cutting Ebron was a mistake, for what it is worth.

I think the real problem was the lack of proper usage of the personal on the offensive side of the football. Using Blount as a starting or a change of pace back was the wrong move. Being to conservative in the passing game and not going deep more often was a mistake. I think the offense made plays that were more complicated than they needed to be and it put the players out of sync as a result. I believe that most of the problems with the offense this year come from the offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. J.B.C. came in after the departure of Joe Lombardi and proved to be better at the job from the get go. I believed at the time that with more time and experience at the job that he would get better but sadly he did not. J.B.C. made the wrong plays on offense and seemed to do so out of fear that the obvious route of attack would be too predictable. I would call a passing play on a 3rd and short when handing the ball off to Blount (who was brought on to do just that) would have been better. Theo Riddick was not used enough in the passing game, even after Tate was traded and Marvin Jones was injured. Kenny Golladay was barely used at all in the second halve of the season. Jim Bob Cooter just did not know how to make use of the weapons he and Stafford had at their disposal either at the start of the season when the Team had plenty of them, or the end of the season when they had few. It looks like the team realizes that it is time to move on from J.B.C. as the Lions have announced that they will not renew his contract for 2019.

• Surprising Defense 

Much like the offense, the Lions Defense started out very bad in the beginning of the season. Unlike the offense, the defense improved through out the season with promising young players and a very good mid season acquisition that gives very good reasons to be optimistic for the group in 2019. To be fair, the improvement is not noticeable in the points allowed but in other statistics. The team came in with obvious need on the defensive line after the loss of Haloti Ngata and the constant injury of Ezekiel Ansah. Thankfully the team has a bright future with its recent draft picks from Alabama in defensive linemen A'Shawn Robinson and Da'Shawn Hand, both of which have been praised by Pro Football Focus this season.  The biggest weakness was in stopping the run game. This to was addressed by trading for Damon Harrison (a.k.a Snacks) for a 5th round pick. Snacks has been the best defensive Tackle against the run for years and his inclusion turned the Lions run defense from bad to good overnight. What is more he is more than just a rental as we will have him at least until 2020. The Lions have 3 elite or potentially elite defensive linemen on the roster and an effective run stopping game as well. The team has a good foundation to build off of on the defensive line.

The Lion's secondary on the other hand needs a little more work. Darius Slay had a bit of a down year but  still proved he was one of the best corners in the NFL and was once again selected to the pro bowl as was once corned and now safety Quandre Diggs.Rookie Tracy Walker has seen a decent amount of playing time this year and is poised to take over for Glover Quin when he decides to retire from football. The search for a good outside corner opposite of Slay has been unsuccessful thus far and will almost certainty require another high draft pick or a really good free agent signing. Teez Tabor will either make a move to safety and/or will have to take a major leap in progress to salvage his spot on the team this off-season. The nickle corner spot could use some improvement as well. The Linebackers are more difficult to judge. Jarrad Davis started the season poorly but became much better by the end. Davis's spot on the roster is not in jeopardy but his starting position might be. Devon Kennard looks like a keep as a pass rushing LB on the line.

• Injuries and Departures

As is the norm for the Lions, the injury bug hit the team hard this year with the loss of our rookie running back Kerryon Johnson, Wide out Marvin Jones and Right Guard T.J. Lang. We also saw something we are not used to, the trading of the very productive Golden Tate for a 3rd round pick to the Eagles.  Even Kenny Golladay went down to injury late in the season leaving Stafford with no significant weapons in the passing game. This is on top of the team's decision to cut Eric Ebron in the off season.The net results were that the offense laid an egg in the second half of the season even as the defense show signs of improvement. On the defense side there was the continued injury saga of franchised tagged defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and second year Corner Jamal Agnew. The biggest story was the inclusion of Damon Harrison which boosted the Lions Run defense to one of the better ones in the league. 

In short, the season started off as a disaster against the New York Jets, seemed to get better going up to the loss against the Sea Hawks and went off the rails when Golden Tate was traded away as the Lions threw in the towel at the mid way point and set themselves up for a high draft pick and plenty of cap space to use in free agency. While it looked like the team could still some how get in the playoffs if they won out and got to an even record their loss against Buffalo ended that illusion. The off season started earlier than usual for the Lions this year and while I am still annoyed with some of the decisions the team made I am never the less looking forward to the changes that will be made starting with who ever takes over the offense for Jim Bob Cooter, which I will cover in the next post. 

Lions Blog: I'm still here

It has been a while since I put the digital pen to the virtual paper and there have been a few reasons why. First, I have to admit, the Lions first game for the season was more than a little dispiriting for me. I avoided listening to the local sports radio channel (97.1 the Ticket) for two weeks after that shocking, miserable and utterly perplexing loss. Second I have been both busy at work, and sick (literally) and as a result I have been even more tired than usual. The biggest reason is that I have suffered from the usual depression and apathy that I go through on a regular basis. I am still here (as the title of this blog states) and I want to give a few through from the first 6 games of this season and finish up with where I think this team is going this year.

First game counts, but doesn't matter
I actually tried to write a blog about this game as it was happening (made possible by it being played on Monday, my day off) but by the third quarter I gave up after writing Lions go 3 and out or another interception ends the team's drive. The Lions played awful against the Jets. In fact the Lions played like it was still the preseason and were not taking their opponent or the game seriously. This is bad, but the not end of the world for the Lions as some of the problems they showed were so bizarre that it defied logic and explanation. I saw Golden Tate drop passes. Golden Tate does not drop passes. I look at things like that and think that while this game does count on the team's record, it does not matter. I say that because it tells me nothing of what the team is capable of, its strengths or weaknesses. The further away for that game we get, the more convinced I am of this thinking. Stafford threw four interceptions that game and has thrown one since then. I simply choose to believe (based on the evidence) that that game should not be viewed as a meaningful barometer of the team.

Losses to 49ers and Cowboys, Win against Packers 
As go Kerryon Johnson's participation, so go the Lion's scoring, and winning. When the team uses its rookie running back more, they score more, they keep more drives alive, they control the clock more, and they win more. When they use Johnson less, they do all of the above mentioned things less.  The loss against San Francisco is a good example of that. The Lions got dominated in the first half and in the second half they almost came from behind to win it, almost. The difference is that Kerryon Johnson was barely used in the first half an heavily used in the second. The team also has a problem playing complete games, something that they showed in all but one game this season. This was on display in their loss against the Cowboys in Dallas as they were dominated in the first half, came from behind to take the lead but loss to a last second field goal. The Lions did not play a complete game and did not use its star in the making running back Johnson nearly enough. The offense could not sustain drives and it could not put enough points on the board to make up for its weak defense. I am putting the Lion's week 5 win against the Packers in this section as well as the team once again did not play a complete game. the Lions dominated the first half and nearly fell apart as a injured Arron Rodgers nearly complete a come from behind win against them. The difference between this and the other two games (other than the win) is that the Lions were able to score just enough in the second half to keep their heads above water. It also helped that the Packers had the worst kicker since Nate Freese and Alex Henry for the Lions in 2014 as Green Bay missed 3 field goals.

Wins against Patriots and Dolphins
Rookie head coach Matt Patricia only took 3 games to get two big monkeys off of his back. His signature win against a winning team and a 100 yard rusher for the Lions for the first time in almost 5 years. Both of these feats alluded his predecessor Jim Caldwell for the entirety of his 4 years as Lions head coach. Both of these accomplishments came at the expense of the New England Patriots, Patricia's old team  and still the favorites to represent the AFC in the Superbowl this season. This win was the first complete game the team has played this season. They scored in every quarter and dominated on offense and defense all the way from start to finish. The Lions repeated this feat in their win against the Miami Dolphins in week 7 (after their bye week) and ran the ball for nearly 250 yards (158 by Kerryon Johnson alone) and stayed ahead from their first possession to the final kneel down in victory formation. The Lions defense continue to get sacks (racking up another 3) and Stafford continues to be efficient and effective with only one interception since the first game (which as I have already stated counts but does not matter). Both of these wins came against teams with winning records and both were complete games for the Lions. More importantly both games featured heavy use of Johnson, netting him over a hundred rushing yards in both games. As the Lions use of Kerryon Johnson goes, so do the Lions drives, points, and wins.

Where is this team really going 
I do discount the meaning of that first game against the New York Jets as I do not see it as meaningful. I will look at the other 5 games the team has played as of the time I am writing this (some of which was written while watching the Lion's road game in Miami). We see the team with 3 incomplete games in which they only won one and tow complete games in which they dominated and won. The difference is Kerryon Johnson; the more they use him, the more they win. The team's defense will continue to be inconsistent ad will fall of in the second half ( unless they get some more talent on the D line or if Ziggy ever comes back) so it is up to the teams offense to sustain drives, take time off the clock and put at least some points on the board to stay ahead. The defense does well in the first half and that allows the Lions to jump to an early lead but the offense can not let off the gas completely in the second half. If the Lions play more complete games, they will win nearly all of their remaining games, win the division and at least one playoff games. Looking at their schedule, the only game that looks unwinnable is the Rams (who I expect to be in the Superbowl against the Patriots). The other 8 games are completely winnable. Lets just see if the Lions actually win them.

Lions Blog: Reaction to 53 Man Roster

Intro
In a not at all surprising manner, I missed my last chance to do one last roster prediction before cut day. Since I can not yet change the past, I might as well do a reaction blog and take a look at just how wrong my earlier predictions ended up being. I just want to make it clear that this is not the final 53 man roster as changes take place throughout the season and I expect some to be made before the season begins. With that being said, let us take a look at what we have right now. I once again used Pride of Detroit as my source of research, specifically this POD article from 9-2-18 for the 53 man roster lineup as it currently stands.

Offense 

Backup QB
The team went with the more seasoned quarterback as the backup instead of the younger cheaper option. I feel this was a mistake for that very reasons and that I did not feel Matt Cassel did much better than Jake Ruddock. By making this choice, the team is going with the player who is more experienced in working with the head coach rather than the offensive coordinator and starting quarter back, which is another bad thing. That being said, the Lions will live and die by the arm of Matthew Stafford and if he goes down with injury and misses any significant amount of time, this season is over. That fact alone makes it a non issue I do expect more Backup QBs to be drafted in the future.

Running Backs
It looks like the team is sticking with Bellore as the Team's Fullback and Zach Zenner is going on the Injured Reserve list for some reason. Other than that I was right in my second roster prediction as both Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. Dwayne Washington was cut as I expected.

Wide Receivers 
The group that I was most certainty, the wide receiver group ended up being the most surprising on offense. I am surprised not by who was cut but who was included. The team went with 6 WRs, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay and TJ Jones as expected. Then the Lions included Preseason sensation Brandon Powell (who had that punt return for a TD) and Bradley Marquez (who I have no knowledge of). I expected the team to go with 4 Wide outs and maybe 5 if one of the undrafted free agents stood out. I never expected 6 wide receivers to be kept on the roster. I firmly believe that with the deficiencies elsewhere on the team that Marquez is just a place holder until a quality player at another position of need is signed and the team will go back down to 5 WRs. 

Tight Ends 
The team went over my prediction with 4 Tight Ends, giving the nod to Preseason favorite Hakeem Valles while keeping last year's 4th round pick Micheal Roberts, who some had been talking about as a potential roster cut. This of course means that there is one less spot for other players that I predicted would make the team but this seems less surprising than the 6 WRs.

Offensive Line
The team went with only 9 offensive linemen as apposed to the 10 that I predicted. I would prefer 10 as it gives the team the ability to field 2 complete lines in case of heavy injury on the O line (which always seems to happen with the Lions) but this is not a big deal with the number of players on the roster that can do multiple positions. There were also some differences with the players on the roster from what I predicted but none that were meaningful to me. I still have high expectations for this group this season, provided that they stay healthy (which has yet to happen).

Defense 

Defensive Line
The defensive line having only 7 members is easily the biggest surprise for me on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive linemen rotate in and out on a frequent basis which means having more is preferable. The team is has 3 DE, 3 DTs, and one that can play both, the rookie Da'Shwan Hand. This low number of linemen will be helped by the fact that some of the linebackers will play at the line of scrimmage as well as edge rushers, especially Devon Kennard. I do expect the team to add another lineman though given that they have 6 WRs when they do not need that many. I expect one of thoseextra wide outs to be cut when a suitable defensive lineman is found on the waiver wire or as a free agent.

Linebackers
The linebacker group is a little close to what I predicted, minus Nick Bellore being moved back.
Defensive Backs. The team went with Eli Harold, a recent addition to the Lions, and Trevor bates over Johnathan Freeny and Bellore. I am not too familiar with these players and as such I don't have anything interesting to say about them. I was right in guessing the number of LBs the team would have though, so that is something.

Defensive Backs 
Like I expected, the team is going with 10 Defensive backs across corners and safeties. I was almost right about who would make the team, expect that DeShawn Shead was the surprise cut that few if anyone saw coming. This means the startin outside corner spot opposite  Darius Slay will go to Nevin Lawson full time unless Teez Tabor makes a run for it later in the season. Shead's roster spot was taken up by Dee Virgin, another player that I am not familiar with.

Most Surprising to Me
The most surprising aspect of the roster is the lack of depth on the defensive line and the over abundance of receivers (both WR and tight ends). I do expect there to be changes in the near future that will bring that into balance when quality Defensive line players players  become available, though that might have to wait until after the start of the regular season (which is less than a week away at this point). Kick off time for the first game of the regular season against the New York Jets is 7:10 pm on Monday (my day off) and I will be watching.

Lions Blog: Mid-Camp Roster Prediction

Being unable to watch much of the Lion's second preseason game against the New York Football Giants (Work will do that to me), I have elected to do a update to my 53 man roster prediction highlighting the changes as well as the reasons for them. Here is a link to the Pride of Detroit snap count article for preseason game 2 that I used for some information regarding player participation in Friday's game against the Giants.

Offense

Quarterbacks (2)
I made changes to this group. Rudock has played close enough to Matt Cassel at worst and much better at times in the preseason games (especially the 2nd one). Since he will be much cheaper than the veteran I say he is the one that stays to be the backup QB.

• Matthew Stafford
• Jake Rudock 

Running Backs (5)
Based on some observations from the preseason games, it seems like my prediction of the end of Abdullah and Riddick's time here in Detroit was premature. Both of these running backs have showed enough flashes of their best capabilities to justify giving them another year. Dwayne Washington has yet to play in a preseason game and seem likely to be cut. Nick Bellore has been removed from the RB list as the full back and moved back to the Linebacker group. He has been rarely used as a FB in the two preseason games and due to an Injury in the LB group (that I will cover later) I decided to move him back to his original position to make room for the roster to have the 5 running backs listed (He can still function as a Fullback when needed).

• Kerryon Johnson 
• LaGarrette Blount 
• Zach Zenner
• Ameer Abdullah 
• Theo Riddick 

Wide Receivers (4)
No Changes, despite the typically good preseason performance of Jace Billingsley.

• Marvin Jones
• Golden Tate
• Kenny Golladay 
• T'J' Jones

Tight Ends (3) 
No changes with the tight ends, but if Roberts does not show some progress, one Hakeem Valles could eat his lunch (and take his roster spot).

• Luke Wilson 
• Micheal Roberts 
• Levine Toilolo 

Offensive Line (10)
No changes in the Offensive line group but the backups need to be better than what they have shown.

• Taylor Decker 
• Graham Glasgow
• Frank Ragnow
• T.J. Lang
• Rick Wagner 
• Corey Robinson
• Joe Dahl
• Leo Kolamatangi 
• Kenny Wiggins 
• Tyrell Crosby 

Defense 

Defensive Line (9)
After my first roster prediction was posted, the Lions finally inked a deal with former Patriots Defensive Lineman Ricky Jean Francois, who I have put in place of Cornelius Washington who has seen his playtime drop in the preseason games. I have also switched Jeremiah Valoaga for Alex Barrett as he has seen much more playing time.

• A'Shawn Robinson 
• Da'Shawn Hand
• Sylvester Williams 
• Jeremiah Ledbetter
• Ricky Jean Francois 
• Ezekiel Ansah 
• Anthony Zetttel
• Kerry Hyder 
• Alex Barrett

Line Backers (7)
The Torn ACL injury in the preseason has claimed another Lion. This time it is Steve Longa who's season has come to and end and I have placed Nick Bellore back in the LB group. Mile Killebrew seems to be making a permanent move to Linebacker as he has been practicing there exclusively lately, hence I have made the corresponding prediction.

• Jarrad Davis 
• Devon Kennard
• Christian Jones 
• Jalen Reeves-Maybin 
• Nick Bellore 
• Johnathan Freeny 
• Miles Killebrew 

Corner Backs (6)
No changes for the Corner Back group, nor do I expect there will be.

• Darius Slay
• Qaundre Diggs
• Teez Tabor
• DeShawn Shead
• Nevin Lawson
• Jamal Agnew

Safeties  (4)
The Safety group loses Killebrew (who could still play the position if needed) but otherwise this group is unchanged (which is a good thing). 

• Glover Quinn 
• Tavon Wilson
• Tracy Walker 
• Charles Washington  

Special Teams (3)
Barring Injury, this should be the most unchanged group of all.

• Sam Martin (P)
• Matt Prater (K)
• Don Muhlbach (LS)

Conclusion

I feel better about this roster prediction with at least a couple of preseason games in the books. I will make one more just before the cut date (when the team has to get down to 53 players by) and there have been 2 more preseason games to go on. 

Lions Blog: Preseason Game 1 Reaction

At long last football is here, sort of. On Friday the Detroit Lions faced the Oakland Raiders  on the road in the first preseason game of 2018. I wanted to write down a few observations and reactions I had about thew game while they are still fresh in my mind. The team did lose this game 16-10 but in no way does that number tell a meaningful story.

Backup Quarterbacks Woes
Unlike in previous seasons where the first drive of the first preseason game is lead by the starting quarterback Mathew Stafford, this game feature none. Instead we were "treated" to the performances of the two competing for the backup quarterback job, Jake Rudock and Matt Cassel. I think it is safe to say that if Stafford goes down to injury for any period of time this season that the team will be in deep trouble for the duration. Despite the differences in experience levels, styles, and teams they played on, both quarterbacks exhibited the same problems, namely bad decision making and holding on to the ball too long and getting sacked as a result. Neither QB could reliably sustain a drive and both lacked the throwing strength and accuracy to be effective passers.   

Run Game Optimism
We saw some life in the run game, possibly for the first time in half a decade. Friday's preseason game against the Raiders feature good runs from Ameer Abdullah (who scored the only Lion's touchdown), Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount. Zach Zenner even had a nice run thrown in there as well. Johnson was obviously the highlight of the group and very much the back that everyone was looking forward to. He mostly played in the back half of the game against 3rd and 4th string defenses but he was used in both the run game and the passing game. Johnson even had a long run that was called back due to a  questionable offensive holding call. Even though there is little to base optimism for the run game on at this point (having only seen one preseason game) I never the less feel optimistic for this teams offense provided that its number 9 leading it (as opposed to 8 or 14).

Defensive 7 Chaos 
The front seven on the defense is clearly a work in progress. The defensive line was missing Ziggy to be fair but it seem unable to generate pass pressure or be effective in stopping the run game. I am not surprised at the front line's ineffectiveness as it received the leas attention of the team's needs in the off season but I was surprised by the performance of the linebackers. The seem to leave large gaps for running backs and tight ends to blaze through and always seemed to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. I do expect this group to get much better as the preseason  goes on and as we approach meaningful football as it has to for the team to be as competitive in the NFC as I expect.

Grains of Salt?
To sum things up:

• The team needs to keep looking for a quality backup quarterback as it clearly does not have one right now. 
• The Rung game is looking substantially improved at this very early point and I will have to update my 53 man roster prediction in the near future (which I was already planning on doing anyway).
• The new hybrid/flexible defense is a work in progress at this early point and needs a lot more time and effort to work its self out (as well as some additional talent).

There is not a single one of those points that are the least bit surprising to me. Many people have been urging caution about the seemingly improved run game but considering the resources that the team has invested to fix the situation over the last few years our expectations should be this high. When healthy we should have a very good offensive line and we have a wealth of talent in the backfield. I do think the defense will get better (and even in that one game, we only lost it by one possession) and it is hard enough to get a quality starting quarterback yet alone a decent back up. I choose to look at the positive aspect (the run game) of this games as I think it is more meaningful in the long run.