Lions Blog: Post-Draft Depth Chart

With the 2019 NFL Draft firmly in the rear view mirror and the off season workouts on the horizon I though this would be a good time to make some post draft roster predictions. I know that free agency is an ongoing event and there are always ways to take advantage of cut day to fill some roster holes. Nevertheless, looking at the way the roster looks following the draft I can make some somewhat educated predictions as to where this roster is going. I intend to do more in-depth offense and defense focused posts in the future during the long time between organized team activities and training camp but for now I am focused on roster predictions as opposed to position predictions.

Offense (25 Players)
While the offense may have seamed like an after thought coming out of free agency it was front and center in this year's draft with the selection of T.J. Hockenson, tight end from Iowa. The shift that this pick causes in the tight end squad not only increases the quality of the depth but gives the Detroit Lions the ability to run two tight end sets a lot more often (which I expect to become the base offense at some point this season). The drafting of Travis Fulghram in the sixth round give the team a long term developmental player like Kenny Golladay (and perhaps even an eventual replacement for Marvin Jones if needed.) The addition of two offensive linemen from the undrafted free agent pool gives the team better depth on the O-Line and some more competition for the starting right guard spot. I expect the sixth round running back Ty Johnson and seventh round tight end Isaac Nauta to wind up on the practice squad. Johnson could win a roster spot via the kick or punt return job and if the team moves on from Micheal Roberts that would open the door for Nauta to make the roster. I have Cook at the backup QB spot but I could also see Tom Savage take that job as well.

Offensive Line
   Starters: Taylor Decker - Frank Ragnow - Graham Glasgow -Kenny Wiggins - Rick Wagner
   Depth: Ryan Pope - Beau Benzschawel - Joe Dahl - Oday Aboushi - Tyrell Crosby
Tight ends 
  Starters: Jessie James - T.J. Hockenson
  Depth: Micheal Roberts
Wide Receivers 
  Starters: Kenny Golladay - Marvin Jones - Danny Amendola
  Depth: Tommylee Lewis - Travis Fulgham 
 Running Backs                                                  (Full Back)
  Starters: Kerryon Johnson - C.J. Anderson - (Nick Bawden)
  Depth: Zach Zenner - Theo Riddick
Quarterbacks
   Starter: Matthew Stafford
   Depth  Connor Cook


Defense (25 Players)
It is safe to say that the defense got the Lion's share of the free agency money this year but they were not ignored in this year's draft class either. The Lions made an odd seaming pick in the second round with Jahlani Tavai , linebacker from Hawaii. Tavai is a do it all linebacker and is being primed to take over for Christian Jones and JRM as the third linebacker on the field for the starting defense at some point in the season. Will Harris will likely be used the same way Killebrew was in 2016 in a dime package as a box safety. Austin Bryant will be a rotational piece on the defensive line and will likely be used like Ziggy was in obvious passing situations. Amani Oruwariye has a chance of winning the starting outside corner spot either out of the gate or a some point in the season. PJ Johnson is likely a long term developmental prospect/ eventual replacement for Snacks Harrison at nose tackle. With the changes made as a result of this draft class we will likely have seen the last of Jalen Reeves Maybin and Tavon Wilson as the team looks to get younger and bigger on defense.

Defensive Line
  Starters: Da'Shawn Hand - A'Shawn Robinson - Damon Harrison - Trey Flowers
  Depth: Romeo Okwara - John Atkins - PJ Johnson - Austin Bryant
Line Backers 
  Starters: Devon Kennard - Jarrad Davis -Jahlani Tavai
  Depth:  Christian Jones - Steve Longa - Miles Killebrew
Corner Backs
  Starters: Darius Slay - Justin Coleman - Rashaan Melvin
  Depth: Teez Tabor - Jamal Agnew - Amani Oruwariye
Safeties
  Starters: Quandre Diggs - Tracy Walker
  Depth: Will Harris - Andrew Adams - Charles Washington

Special Teams (3 Players)
Punter: Sam Martin
Kicker: Matt Prater
Long Snapper: Don Muhlbach

Kick Returner: Tommylee Lewis
Punt Returner: Jamal Agnew

Conclusion 
The Lions address most of their needs between free agency and the draft in the 2019 off season (The off season improvement really began in the middle of last season with the trade for Damon Harrison). The two biggest needs for the Detroit Football Lions is an Obvious start at both Right Guard and Outside Corner opposite of Darius Slay. In both of those instances though the team has at least three players who can legitimately compete for those starting positions. The tight end squad turns form a weakness to a position of strength and the Depth issue I saw on the Defensive line looks like it has been filled quite nicely. I will be doing more in-depth analysis posts during the long summer off season taking a look at where I think the team is going on both offense and defense.

Lions Blog: Reaction to first round pick, Day 2 Predictions

Day one Reaction 
The Pick is in... and with the number 8 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Detroit Football Lions select T.J. Hockenson, Tight End from Iowa.

This is the prediction I made and for once on this here blog of mine I was right. With this pick the team has finally moved on from Eric Ebron and embraced its destiny as the new New England Patriots. Matthew Stafford now has a weapon that will be catching pass from him for years to come and the team finally has a good all around and reliable tight end that can not only catch the football but block as well. T.J. also come from Iowa which runs a NFL style offense so as a result his transition to the pro level should be quicker than normal for a rookie tight end. Above all I believe this pick will result in the Lions running two tight ends sets much more often which will help not only the passing game but the run game as well. The team may even make the two tight end (also known as a 12 man formation) their base starting offense at some point in the season.

Because I shouldn't do a reaction without giving a grade I will give a grade here. 

I give the T.J. Hockenson Pick by the Detroit Lions an A.

Looking to Day two:
There are a lot of first round quality talent that fell to the second round including a corner that many mocked to the Lions in the first at number 8. I would like to go over a few note worthy ones that the team will be looking at in the second round and perhaps the 3rd round as well. 

According to  this Lions Wire article form today, there are plenty of options for the team to take in the second round. I am looking at the outside corner position opposite of Slay as the next target for Lions general manager Bob Quinn to target in the second round tonight. Looking at the list linked to above I see Byron Murphy, Justin Layne, David Long, Greedy Williams, Amani Oruwariye and Sean Bunting still on the board heading into the second round. I do not expect Murphy to still be there for the Lions at the 11th pick (43rd pick overall) as he should go very early in the second round. I do think there is a good chance that Williams could fall to the Lions thought and considering he was mocked to the team by some, getting Greedy in the second would be a nice move (maybe even a steal). Regardless I am expecting the team to take one of the mentioned corner backs in thew second round. Since I should make a prediction I will go with Greedy Williams to the Lions in the second round (unless the team executes a trade which in that case, throw everything out the window).

Moving to the 3rd round I sense that the team will go either defensive lineman or linebacker and the name that has stuck with me for months now is that of Christian Miller form Alabama who is expected to go somewhere on day two and can play outside as an edge rusher or as a linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Needless to say I am very much looking forward to tonight to see just how wrong (or perhaps right) I will end up being.

Lion's Blog: 2019 Draft Board Analysis

With the 2019 NFL Draft approaching I want to take some time to go through what I believe is the Detroit Lion's draft board. This exercise will be more than just me putting my own values and thoughts but will also feature me trying to get into the Mind of Matt Patricia and the new Patriot way that the Lions have adopted to come to a likely ranking of draft prospects that the team can take with the number 8 pick this year.

Biggest Needs
Just to recap what I wrote earlier the Lions have 5 Needs that can and should be address in this year's draft and they are as follows...

1. Defensive Tackle
2. Linebacker 
3. Tight End
4. Outside Corner
5. Right Guard 

Starter Needs vs. Depth Needs
This ordering does not mean that the team will take these positions in this order in the draft as there is a difference between starting needs and depth needs that will be considered as well. It bears mentioning that starting needs rank as more important than depth needs but in cases where a position lacks enough depth to field a team (such as one that rotates like the defensive line) it can rise to being a bigger need than a that of a starter.

1. Defensive Tackle, Depth
2. Linebacker, Depth
3. Tight End, Starter/ Depth
4. Outside Corner Starter, Starter
5. Right Guard, Starter 

As you can see, the first starter based need on the list is the tight end. This could also be a depth pick if done in the later rounds as the team does have a likely starter with Jessie James. The other to starting needs of outside corner and right guard are both starter needs but do have decent depth. The Tight end spot needs depth and a upgrade at starter and as such ranks higher than this chart shows.
 
 
Lions likely draft Board for first number 8 pick

Setting aside the unlikely event that a Quinnen Williams or a Josh Allen falls to number 8, the likely draft board for the Detroit Lions in the first round goes as follows.

1. T.J. Hockenson, TE
2. Devin White, LB
3. Greedy Williams, CB
4. Jonah Williams, T
5. Trading down

At this point I expect the Lions to use some of their plentiful available cap space to snag a DT in free agency (most likely to bring back Ricky Jean Francois but Suh is not totally out of the question either) and they will likely use a day 2 pick on a hybrid DT/DE as well. I really do not expect the Lions to use a first round pick on the Defensive line this year especially as there is bound to be some first round quality talent that falls to the second the way Robinson fell to the Lions in 2016. The need at corner is bigger than at right guard due to less depth and therefore less competition for the spot opposite of Slay. Trading down would likely only happen if all of the above options were off the board.

Most Likely Pick
I have been aboard the T.J. Hockenson train for so long that I forgot where my stop is. Needless to say I am still on that train. I expect Devin White to be off the board at 8 and even if not, the idea of getting the next Gronkowski (and keeping him away from the Green Bay Packers) to an offense that really needs another credible weapon to be truly effective is too much to pass up
Bottom line, I expect the Detroit Lions to Draft T.J. Hockenson, Tight End from Iowa with the number 8 pick in the 2019 NFL draft. We do not have long to find out how wrong (or right) I am.

Lions Blog: Pre-Draft Depth Chart

With plenty of time left before the draft in late April, I wanted to take a look at where the depth chart for the Detroit Lions currently stands to get a better idea as to where roster depth (or lack therefore of) is. The goal of this exercise to better guide my next post in determining where the team should and will go in next month's draft. There is also the chance of more significant free agency pickups as the team still has plenty of cap space to work with. My Goal is to have a good idea as to where the team is strongest and where it needs to improve with the remainder of the off season.

Offense (26 Players)
The offense struggled mightily last year with the loss of skilled position players due to injury or trades and as a result needed much more attention to make the team competitive this year. While most of the money spent in free agency has gone to the defensive side there was some key additions to the offense this year as well. It is important to note that the only major losses the offense had that will not be here this year (sadly) were Golden Tate and T.J. Lang. While T.J. Jones, Luke Wilson, and Levine Toilolo are also not on the roster, the team's offense still looks very similar now to where it was at the end of the season. The team did recently sign a back up running back in former Rams and Panthers runner C.J. Anderson who looks like the favorite to go behind Kerryon Johnson in the back field. The Lions also brought in more tight end depth (Logan Thomas) and more competition for the recently vacated right guard spot (Oday Aboushi). Here is where the current roster depth chart (and Almost a 53 man chart) stands. 

Offensive Line
Starters: Taylor Decker - Frank Ragnow - Graham Glasgow -Kenny Wiggins - Rick Wagner
Depth:   Andrew Donnal - Joe Dahl - Leo Koloamantangi - Oday Aboushi - Tyrell Crosby

Tight Ends
Jessie James - Micheal Roberts - Logan Thomas

Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay - Marvin Jones - Danny Amendola - Tommylee Lewis - Brandon Powell

Running Backs                                                                                            (Full Backs)
Kerryon Johnson - C.J. Anderson - Zach Zenner - Theo Riddick - (Nick Bellore - Nick Bawden)

Quarter Backs
Matthew Stafford - Connor Cook

Defense (26 Players)
The Defense received the Lion's share of the free agency money spent by the team this year with the addition of Trey Flowers and Justin Coleman. The Lions really started the off season additions to the defense with the mid season trade for Damon (Snacks) Harrison last year, a move that turned them into a top 10 run defense overnight. This free agency period might have turned the defense as a whole into a top 10 or even a top 5 unit. The later addition of Rashaan Melvin gives them some flexibility on the outside corner but the team seems like it is still lacking a true starter opposite of Darius Slay. The  addition of Andrew Adams gives the team depth in the secondary and options for fielding 3 or more safeties at once. The starting players on the Defensive line looks stellar but how is it looking in depth and where do the Linebackers look after Jarrad Davis and Devon Kennard? Here is where the current depth chart stands for the defense.

Defensive Line 
Starters: Da'Shawn Hand - A'Shawn Robinson - Damon Harrison - Trey Flowers
Depth: Romeo Okwara - John Atkins - Eric Lee - Mitchell Loewen

Line Backers
Starters: Devon Kennard - Jarrad Davis
Depth: Jalen Reeves Maybin - Christian Jones - Steve Longa - Trevor Bates - Miles Killebrew

Corner Backs
Starters: Darius Slay - Justin Coleman - Rashaan Melvin
Depth: Teez Tabor - Jamal Agnew - Mike Ford

Safeties
Starters: Quandre Diggs - Tracy Walker
Depth: Tavon Wilson - Andrew Adams - Charles Washington

Roster Strengths and Weaknesses 

Strengths
The obvious strength of the team is the staring defensive line, which is one that will be very difficult for opposing running backs to get any momentum against with so many run stuffers at the ready. The unit should also be much improved at pass rushing with the addition of Flowers and the expected second year jump with Hand.

The offense side is less obvious as it needs more improvements over last year. Looking at it to me the wide receiver group looks pretty strong if everyone is healthy. The Lions will have to decide if they want 4 or 5 wide outs this year. The running back group looks pretty set as well with a good starter and some decent depth. There will be a full back battle between Bellore and Bawden as there likely will be only one FB. The Lions are set with Stafford as the starter (obviously) but might want some competition for the back up role with only Cook in that position.

Needs Starter(s)
The offensive line is good at depth but needs a starter at right guard with the departure of T.J. Lang. As of now the Lions have 4 players who could compete for the starter at RG and for the moment I have put Wiggins at that spot as he was the starter for much of last year. A camp battle between Wiggen, Dahl, Aboushi, and Crosby has a decent chance of yielding a respectable starter, unless the team goes for one early in this year's draft. Most likely the team will take another RG somewhere on day 3 and add yet more competition for that starting spot. 

On defense the team lacks an obvious starter for the outside corner opposite of Slay. I put Melvin there for the moment but is the team can make a upgrade there in the first two days of the draft or in the remainder of free agency I would expect them to do so. As of now it will likely be a camp battle between Tabor and Melvin for that starting spot.

Needs Depth
While the starting defensive line is impressive, less so is the depth behind it. As of now the team has only 3 defensive tackles, which is a heavily rotated position. Flowers can line up as a DT if need be but the team desperately needs more depth in the middle of the line. I would expect the team to address this with a high pick if not before then in free agency (Ndamukong Suh is still out there waiting to be signed). The linebackers are also needed an improvement in depth as they do not have enough talent to field an effective 3-4 defensive front right now. I would not be surprised if the Lions go linebacker with the number 8 pick in the draft. 

On offense the team needs depth at tight end. Jessie James is the likely starter at this point but the team should take advantage of this draft's excellent depth at the position. T.J. Hockenson is the only player who could dislodge James from the starting spot and he would have to be taken in the first round (a decent possibility) but there should be plenty of day two options as well. I expect the team to draft a tight end in the first two days of the draft.

Conclusion 
Looking at the current depth chart has told me more than I expect about the team's needs going into the draft. I think the team's biggest needs are Defensive Tackle (likely a hybrid DT/DE), Line Backer, Tight End, Outside Corner, and a Right Guard, in that order. I honestly expect the team to go after a DT in free agency which could include re-signing Ricky Jean Francois or going after the big fish, Suh (I have heard nothing about this as being plausible, I am just pointing out that he is still unsigned)  I will go into deeper potential draft targets in the next post but I do expect all of those 5 above mentioned positions to be taken in this year's draft.

Lions Blog: Thoughts on first wave of free agency

I just wanted to give some quick thoughts on the first wave of free agency news for the Detroit Lions. This post is not covering the whole of free agency (which never really ends) just the first few days as the big signings get announced and finalized. I start off by mentioning some of the players that were cut just before the start of free agency. I will then touch on each of the free agent signings  and I will end on where the team's needs are as of now.

Who left
Things got kicked off before free agency began with a few key players being released. Two of said players were considering retirement and all freed up significant amounts of cap space.

• Glover Quin, Safety: This was the easiest one to predict as the Lions already had Quin's replacement in house with Tracy Walker. Glover Quin had been thinking about retirement for a couple of season and this year the team made the decision for him. Quin has not retired but is expected to do so. Unlike the two other players released this one does not open up a roster hole as much as it thins depth in the secondary.

• T.J. Lang, Right Guard: This one was a little surprising considering that T.J Lang was willing to take a pay cut to help out the team. I suppose it was clear to the team that the amount of a cut that T.J. would have been willing to take would not have been nearly enough when cutting him would have saved more. T.J. Lang when on the field was the best offensive lineman but that was less than 50% of the time the offense was on the field over his two years in Detroit. T.J. Land has said he is contemplating retirement (likely another reason he was cut) and likely to do so. 

• Nevin Lawson, Corner Back: This one was a complete surprise to me because I figured that Nevin Lawson was a shoe in for a starting position in either the slot or the outside. I also looked at the fact the team needed an upgrade over Teez Tabor on the outside it seemed unlikely to me that the team would open up another hole in the secondary. As with the other pre free agency cuts this one creates yet more cap space for the team to use.

Who we got
 I want to just touch on the bigger signings and what they mean to the team. There have been other signings since the start of free agency but many of those are for depth. I am interested in talking about the big players that will make the big bucks here. I will touch on the other signings in a future article dealing with the current projected depth chart.

• Danny Amendola, Slot Receiver: The Lions made their first move before the start of free agency with the signing of former Dolphin and Patriot slot receiver Danny Amendola, an older player who who will likely fulfill the same role as Anquan Boldin did a few years ago in 2016. Boldin (also an older  slot receiver) was used as a get out of jail free card for Stafford when he was under duress and was counted on to move the chains on 3rd downs. Danny was also used to move the chains and is expected to bring efficiency to Stafford's game.  This was seen as an odd signing as the first move the team made but because Danny was already a free agent the Lions did not have to wait until Wednesday to make the signing official. Danny Amendola was signed to a one year deal worth $4.5-5.75 million. 

• Justin Coleman, Nickle Corner back: The first real move the team made in free agency was also the most controversial in the signing of Justin Coleman and making him the highest paid slot corner in the NFL. This fact was the most talked about aspect of the new Lions Corner and remained so even after it was found out that Coleman also played in New England under now Lions coach Matt Patricia. What has not been talked about enough is the fact the most offenses run with three wide receivers sets about 80% of the time, meaning that defenses have to have a slot or Nickle corner out there for the same amount of the game. The end result is that the nickle corner is basically a starter in today's NFL and should be paid as one. The fact the teams have not valued slot corners as such until now is an indictment of other teams and not the Lions (I do not expect Coleman to remain the highest paid slot corner for long). Justin Coleman has the speed, ball skills and athleticism need to be an effective slot corner and can be effective against the run as well as make plays on the ball. The Lion's base defense is a 3 corner nickle package and Coleman will be a starter as a result. Justin Coleman was signed to a 4 year, $36 Million contract and because of his young age at about 25 he should easily be here for the length of his contract if not beyond. 

• Trey Flowers, Defensive End: The most predictable signing the Lions could make was also the one that many assumed they wouldn't because it was so predictable. Then the team went out and did it, they signed the biggest Defensive end in free agency in Trey Flowers formerly of the New England Patriots. Flowers is a versatile, reliable and effective defensive player who can set up anywhere on the Defensive line and be very effective as a pass rusher and a run stopper. Because of the similarity between the Patriots and Lions defenses Flowers will be an effective plug and player defender who will make an impact from day one. Flowers is also far and away the biggest and most expensive free agent signing by Bob Quinn as general Manage for the Lions. The most concerning thing about the signing is that Flowers has never had more than 7.5 sacks in a season yet he is getting paid as if he regularly gets double digit sacks. This fact may be more to due with the relative lack of talent on the Patriots Defensive line which will not be a problem in Detroit. As I noted earlier Flowers is also very effective in the run game and when lined up next to Snacks Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson should provide the Lions with one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Trey Flowers was signed to a 5 year, $90 million contract and because Trey Flowers is also young at only age 25 there is a good chance he will be here for the full length of the contract. 

• Jesse James, Tight End: The Lions continued their efforts at improving the areas of most need with the best player in free agency with Jessie James, a tight end from Pittsburgh where he always seemed to be under utilized by the Steelers with their high end receivers who always seemed to hog the ball. In Detroit, James is expected to be the starting tight end (unless the Lions Draft Hockenson in the first round)  and is hoping to be utilized as a 3rd down and red zone threat and should also provide an effective blocker in the passing game. Even if the Lions go tight end in the first round James should still see the field most of the time as the team will likely use substantial more two tight end sets under the new Offensive coordinator Darrell Beville. Jessie James signed a 4 year contract worth $25 million and at age 24 is another young player brought on board this year. 

Leftover needs after Free Agency Bonanza 
The team has made several more signings as of now and more will be made but many of them are for depth and I just wanted to go over the big ones in this post.  Going forward with both the remainder of free agency and the draft the team still has plenty of needs and wants for their roster to be ready for the 2019 season. I am just gonna mention those  here and do a more comprehensive post later that will incorporate a current projected depth chart based on all of the free agent signings.

• 2nd/ change of pace Running back: Kerryon Johnson needs a change of pace/ backup/ 2nd running back to reduce the wear and tear on him and keep him healthy longer so he can get that 1000 yard season that he would have gotten last year. As of now either Zach Zenner or Theo Riddick could fulfill  that role but the team may want to get better options . There are some free agents the team could go after or a day two/three draft pick could be used. 
• 2nd outside Corner back: The Lions have two corner backs penciled in as starters (Slay and Coleman) and still need one more starter on the outside. It seems like Teez Tabor is still in the mix to compete for that job but the Lions may want a sure fire starter this year to give Teez more time to grow into that spot.There are some options left in free agency but If the team wants to move on form tabor completely they may look to the first or second day of the draft. The lions do have some other in house options like Ford and Agnew to take a look at as well. 
• Right Guard: The cutting and expected retirement of T.J. Lang has left the team with out a starting right guard and an incomplete offensive line as a result. In the past Bob Quinn would look to a high draft pick to address this issue and he could do so again. The Lions could also go with an in house solution and some lower level free agent signings to set up a strong competition for the spot. I do expect the team to take a right guard at some point in this year's draft, it is just a matter of where. 
• 3rd starting Linebacker: While Kennard and Davis are locked in at starting linebacker positions the team does not have a clear 3rd or 4th linebacker for traditional 3-4 or 4-3 defensive sets. As a hybrid defense the team needs more linebackers and will get some in at least the draft if not later free agency signings. I think the team wants upgrades to Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Christian Jones at those spots as well as increase depth.   
• Defensive Lineman depth: The starting defensive line looks really strong but it lacks rotational depth and will be addressed in the draft in maybe in free agency as well. This draft class is very strong and deep on defensive line players and the team should get solid player(s) in the first two days.  
• 2nd or 1st Tight End: While Jessie James can be a serviceable starting tight end and the Lions still have Roberts as an end zone threat/ developmental project the team will likely take another tight end in the draft. I continue to favor the selection of T.J. Hockenson from Iowa but I have no idea as to the likelihood of that actually happening. 
• Backup Quarter Back: The team signed Connor Cook as a backup this off season but will likely take another QB in day 3 of the draft to set up some competition to be Stafford's backup/ clipboard carrier.  

Conclusion
I have been following the Lions free agency signings since at least 2013 when the team brought in Reggie Bush (the last 1000 yard rusher for the team) and this is in my opinion the most aggressive the team have been in free agency by far. Bob Quinn quickly and decisively went out a grabbed the best players at positions of need. He spent most of the money of defense while adding a couple of interesting weapons for Stafford to play with on offense. More importantly, Bob Quinn has done what he always intends to do which is fill holes in the roster with free agency and set himself up to take the best player available and build depth in the draft. Needless to say I can not wait until the Draft in late April and of course for the start of the 2019 season in September.  

Lions Blog: 2019 Off Season, Aggressive Prediction

Thanks to the hard and tireless work of the Team's unofficial recruiter Damon (Snacks) Harrison, I now have a clear image of my 2019 Aggressive Off Season Prediction. Snacks has been active on Twitter trying to convince former Giants Teammates (and one former Lions) to join the team. I don't really know what the chances of success his campaign has in convincing these players to come here or in the Lions front office in pursuing them but at lease it good to see someone like that actively promoting the team to quality free agent prospects. To that end, I give Snacks most of the credit for this blog post. I have pretty much cut and pasted the text I wrote on the

With my Aggressive Prediction I am going heavy on offense. There are some similar names in this to the Conservative Prediction, In fact there are a lot of the same names. As such, I have pretty much cut and pasted the text I wrote on the same players from the previous prediction as the reasons are still the same.  To me, the similarities make this prediction more plausible. This prediction also includes an aggressive trade for a big name Wide Receiver (but not the one that some people seem to want) and if executed it promises to make give this Detroit Lions team one physical defense and one very scary offense.

Free Agency

• Landon Collins: Safety: This is the big name that has been talked about over the last few days, Landon Collins is the type of player that does not (or should not) hit free agency. He is in his mid 20s and has already been a pro bowler. Collins is a physical box safety that can line up as a pass rusher, can be a big run stopper, and is a very physical tackler. He is also from the New York Football Giants where the Lions have acquired a few successful defensive players. A player this young and experienced does not hit free agency and it is coming at a time when the Lions just released Glover Quin and thus gained some cap space and opened up a roster spot (not to mention a roster hole) for such a player. The Lions may not be as high on Tracy Walker being the immediate replacement for Glover Quin (they may not see that as being his role anyway) and considering how Collins style of play meshes so well with what Coach Matt Patricia wants out of a defender, I believe that Landon Collins is the most likely big named free agent to be signed by the Detroit Lions. 
• Golden Tate: WR: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.
• Marshawn Lynch: RB: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
• Odell Beckham JR.: WR (Traded from NYG): This is an odd one but I am simply following the Damon Harrison Twitter train on it. To be clear Odell Beckham Jr is not a free agent but he is rumored to be on the trading block. The New York Football Giants have been ditching most of their star players in the last year or so and have been doing so with almost reckless abandonment. It would not surprise me to see them trade OBJ for less than what they should. I am thinking Marvin Jones and a third round pick would get the job done. This would free up some additional cap space and it would give the Lions a Wide Receiver trio of Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, and Odell Beckham jr. In other words, the Lions would have the best passing offense in the NFC, if not the whole NFL (it would certainty be the scariest).   

Players Re-Signed

• Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth. 
• Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well. 
• Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.   
• Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign. 

Trades and Departures

• Marvin Jones: WR, Traded to NYG: While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I see them using a trade opportunity with a team that is shedding its talent at a discount rate to land what many fans in Detroit Lions land really wanted in the first round pick from 2014, Odell Beckham Jr. To be fair, I am the least sure about the likely-hood of this part of the prediction. I think this element makes this scenario all the more aggressive (and crazy) and would likely please quite a few fans as well.    
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
• LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back. 
• Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
• Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back. 

Draft

• 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: The Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense. 
• 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE:An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.
• 3rd Round: Traded to NYG
• 4th: Round: Right Guard: While I did fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year, that is not happening. As a result, I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes). 
• Later Rounds:Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad. 

Conclusion
I really wanted to get this post out the door before the Sunday rumors involving free agent deals hit to make sure I get proven wrong (or right?) on these predictions. In this one I went heavy on Offense and with the exception of a second round pick mostly ignores the growing demand among teams for dedicated pass rush specialist. I think that Matt Patricia Values run defense, tackling, versatility and physicality in his defenders far more than pass rushing skills and this prediction falls in line with that. On offense it is less realistic and therefore less likely but more interesting none the less. It give the Lions the best trio of Wide Receivers and the top Tight Ends in this very good class in that position. When pair with what I believe is still one of the best passers in the game (Stafford) and a strong one two punch running back duo (Johnson and Lynch)  this would be a nightmare scenario for every defense in the league and would make it the easy favorite to win the division and more. 

Lions Blog: 2019 Off Season, Conservative Prediction

I have treated this blog as sort of a chore since I have started it. I tend to guilt myself into writing when most of the time I don't fell like it (hence my lack of consistency and frequency in posting) . I started this blog because I spent a lot of time either thinking or talking about football and my Detroit Lions that it is a shame that I can't make an interesting hobby out of it and blogging about it with a blog I already had made was the best idea I came up with. With this post I am having a little fun for a change as I am coming up with some hypothetical off season moves in free agency and the draft for 2019. I was going to do two predictions, one conservative and one aggressive in the same post but I am breaking those ideas up into two separate posts to speed up the time to when one of them gets posted.

For my conservative prediction I am going with the theme of familiarity on both offense and defense. This familiarity has more to do with the coaching staff than with fans (but it does bring back one fan favorite). In free agency this scenario plays it safe and goes with players that both the head coach and the new offensive coordinator have played with before. In the draft it brings a first round trade and what will be an unpopular selection (but a safe and good one), more familiarity with a second round pick, a 3rd round schematic fit on offense and some long term replacement picks on day 3. 


Free Agency 

• Trey Flowers, Defensive End: The most predictable and familiar thing the Lions could do is go with another (hopefully) soon to be ex-Patriot that head coach Matt Patricia worked with, especially if that is a defensive line man. Trey Flowers has been a common choice for the Lions to go after in free agency and that will make this a boring prediction for many. Flowers also happens to be the best player available (Assuming he is) at the position of most need for the Lions (a pass rushing defensive end) and schematically fits with what Patricia is doing to the team like a glove. 
• Marshawn Lynch, Running Back: The Lions found out that durability was a concern for their new star running back Kerryon Johnson and are wanting to address that by bringing in a change of pace back to complement him. For this task I am going with Beast Mode himself, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch played under new O.C. Bevell at Seattle in his best years and is someone that Patricia is familiar with as well, having faced him in the Super Bowl. He would be a short yardage power back and an experienced player who can mentor Johnson and help him be a better back. Finally, His Seattle connections ) could help the Lions bring in the final free agent on this prediction list.
• Golden Tate, Wide Receiver: The clear fan favorite that also has connections to our new O.C. and who's trade back in the middle of the season felt like a gut punch coming back to the Lions might seems like a lame prediction to make. With a clear decline in points and yards resulting from the loss of Golden Tate and a strong need to replace that production, who better to fill that who then the man himself. I would expect that if he were to come back, it would be as a wide out and not the slot receiver he became in 2017. This is how he was in Seattle and his best years in Detroit. I think that the new O.C. and having Lynch here would both go a long way in selling him on returning to Detroit.

Players Re-Signed: I just wanted to mention some of the notable Lions pending free agents that I expect the team to re-sign. I'm not suggesting that players not on this list won't be back, I will bring up the no signs in the Trades and Departures section.

• Zach Zenner, RB: A good proven all purpose backup that is both a fan favorite and will be a cheap to keep, keeping Zenner here is an easy re-sign. Zenner used his injury time to get buff and came back as the obvious replacement for Johnson after his season ending injury. A case can be made that he should be the change of pace/ short yardage back with Kerryon. In any case, Zach Zenner is staying as he has proven his worth. 
• Luke Wilson, TE: To be clear, Luke Wilson was a disappointment in 2018. That would normally be a good reason to let him go but I think he lack of production was more of schematic problem that will be fixed by our new O.C. Darrel Bevell (who was Wilson's O.C. in Seattle). I also think that re-signing Wilson could help in getting both Golden Tate and Marshawn Lynch (his former teammates) to come here as well. 
• Ricky Jean Francois, DT: Ricky has been the strongest voice on the defense and offers the most as far as helping to guide the grown of the young defensive tackles on the team. Keeping him in Detroit would also mean the team would be set on Defensive Tackles and can focus on getting edge rushers. His familiarity with the new defensive scheme Patrica is setting up (coming from New England) will continue to come in handy.   
• Eli Harold, LB: A decent linebacker who can rush the passer is hard to come by and since the team has other needs on the Defensive line and Corner the team will take the safe approach and bring back Eli Harold whom I suspect will not be expensive to re-sign. 

Trades and Departures 

• Marvin Jones, WR (Trade): While Marvin Jones had a down year (due to injury) that is not the reason I expect him to be traded. I think Jones's role in the offense will be phased out by the new O.C. and will be replaced by the return of Golden Tate. I expect the team to use 3 Wide receivers less often and go with more 2 tight ends/ running backs combos and make more use of full backs. I expect Jones to be part of a trade that nets the Lions an additional 2nd round pick as they drop back in the first. 
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: While not a bold prediction by any means, I do expect the team to part ways with the much injured Ansah. While I do expect them to make a reasonable offer to keep him I think that Ziggy will want a change of scenery (as well as a bigger offer he would likely get elsewhere).
• LeGarrette Blount, RB: While I think the real reason Blount had a less than successful season was due to him being used incorrectly as a change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson instead of being only used as a short yardage power back (where he was very successful). Regardless I expect him to leave in free agency and be replaced by Lynch who is a more well rounded back. 
• Matt Cassel, QB: With the Lions signing on Connor Cook and possibly getting another backup QB in the later rounds in the draft, Cassel's time here is at an end. The Lions will be looking to get cheaper and more long term developmental at backup QB.
• Levine Toilolo, TE: While Toilolo was by far the best tight end on the roster this year, that had more to do with the lack of production from the rest of the group. It may seem strange that I would suggest resigning Luke Wilson over Toilolo I believe Wilson will be a better fit with the new O.C. (who worked well with him in the past) To be fair, I am the least certain of this prediction and would not be surprised if they bring him back. 

Draft
The Lions have 9 picks in this years draft with 2 picks in the 6th and 7th rounds. I am predicting the team will trade back in the first round to get and extra 2nd round pick. As I do not have much knowledge about specific players the Lions should target, I have a couple of ideals in the first couple of rounds. Most of this prediction will be position based.

• 1st Round: T.J. Hockenson, Tight End: Having traded away their number 8 pick to somewhere in the 14, 15 range (as well as Marvin Jones),  the Detroit Lions select T.J. Hockenson, the best tight end in this very good draft class for that position. This will upset fans who did not like the 2014 1st round pick of Eric Ebron but this guy is a plug and play tight end that is good all around. It helps that Tight end is the team's biggest need on offense. 
• 2nd Round: Christian Miller, DE: An underrated pass rusher from the Crimson Tide of Alabama, Miller would be perfect as a edge rusher and would complement his former teammates of Hand and Robinson very well, especially since we have all of their former defensive line coach with us at the same position. Both Hand and Robinson emerged as superstars in the making with this defensive coaching staff and while it may be simplistic of me, I am hoping that this gravy train continues with yet another Alabama defensive lineman.   
• 2nd Round: Corner Back: With most of the defensive line needs taken care of the Lions choose a corner back with their second 2nd round pick. I have not been able to gleam any specific player the team could pick but since GM Bob Quinn has tried every year in both the draft and free agency to find a corner opposite of Darius Slay it is likely he will do so again this year. This seems to be a decent class for corners as well. I would expect this player to be a rotational player with Teez Tabor until one of them comes out ahead. 
• 3rd Round: Slot Receiver: Even though this conservative prediction has the Lions bringing back Golden Tate, he will not return to the slot position he was in 2017-2018. Instead, Tate will take on the normal wide out role he served so well with Seattle and his first years in Detroit. With this in mind, the team will take a slot receiver in the 3rd round. One thing I have learned is that the new O.C. Bevell likes big slot receivers and as such I expect the team to go after one. 
• 4th Round: Right Guard: While I do fully expect T.J. Lang to return this year he is nearing his retirement point and the team should be ready with his long term backup in hand. I expect them to draft a Right Guard in the fourth round this year to that end. This player should compete with the likes of Joe Dahl and possibly Tyrell Crosby (although Crosby will likely take over for Rick Wagner when his time comes). 
• Later Rounds: Linebacker, Secondary, Backup QB, RB: Bob Quinn has been pretty good at getting value players and steels in the later rounds of the draft and I expect that to continue this year as well. I would expect depth picks with defensive backs, linebackers and developmental running back and even a backup quarterback. Some of these players will end up on the practice squad. 

Conclusion
The Lions go safe in free agency getting players that the coaching staff has worked with before and filled the biggest hole on the defense (Defensive end) with the best player on the market (Flowers). The team gets back a fan Favorite (Tate) and an effective change of pace back to go with Johnson (Lynch). In the Draft the team gets another pick and fills the biggest need on offense (Tight End) with the best player in the class ( Hockenson) and adding depth at key positions in later rounds. This is a conservative strategy but one that takes care of most if not all of the team's needs and would I think make it a strong NFC contender in 2019.

Lion's Blog: Off Season Preview

It is the off season for the Detroit Football Lions and its time for me to collect some thoughts on what I think the team is going to do to set themselves up for success in the 2019 NFL season. We have a new offensive coordinator in Darrel Bevell and a top ten pick in the 2019 NFL draft as well as a expected middle of the pack amount of salary cap space going into free agency. The team also has some holes to fill on the roster as well as some dept to deepen and some tough (or not so tough) decisions to make on some players and whether or not they will still be with the team come September. This is a lot of ground to cover and I would like to get this posted before free agency to give myself a chance to make some predictions and see if they turn out to be correct (or not).


Jim Bob Cooter Out, Darrel Bevell in at Offensive Coordinator

• Who is he

According to this Pride of Detroit article from 1-16-2019 by Jeremy Reisman, Darrel Bevell served as the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings from 2006-2010 and the same position with the Seattle Sea Hawks from 2011-2017 where he ran a run heavy offense that was lead by some big name running backs such as Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime periods. He was with the Sea Hawks went they went to back to back appearances in the Super Bowl, winning one of them and losing the other on a bad play call when instead of plowing the ball into the end zone at the goal line with Lynch he had Russel Wilson throw the ball which resulted in a game ending interception.

• What he brings to Detroit

What I have heard is that Bevell brings a quarterback friendly offensive coordinator that features a heavy run game and big plays in the passing game. He seems to likes to use a dual of running backs as opposed to the committee the Lions have been going with. Darrel Bevell also really likes to use full backs according to this Lions Wire article dated 1-19-19 by Max Gerber which could help both LB turned FB Nick Bellore and last year's 7th round pick Nick Bawden, whose rookie season was brought to an end during the off season work outs.

• How he changes the team's off season needs 

The new offensive coordinator will most certainty put his stamp on the team's offensive dynamic in his first year. While it might have seemed at the time that his hire was late he was still brought in with plenty of time before the free agency period to asses the needs and the potential of the Lions offense. If you though this new O.C. was going to be out of step with what head coach Mat Patricia wants (ball control, time of possession, and establishing the run) you will be disappointed with the direction Bevell will be taking things. Some of the assets we will need are a good tight end, a big slot receiver, and a change of pace running back to pair with Kerryon Johnson. What the team likely will not get is another big wide out to stretch the field more as Bevel uses less 3 wide receiver sets than previous O.C.s. It doesn't seem like much about the off season needs have changed with the new O.C. as we knew about most of them before this hire. It is now much less likely that the team would go after a trade for Antonio Brown or a big running back like Le'Veon Bell as Bevell likes to pair a lesser back with with a slightly different skill set.

Off Season Needs
Once again the Lions have a large number of needs to fill this off season and on both sides of the football. I just want to go over the needs and the whys for them for both offense and defense even though it will be a little redundant on the offense side. 

Offense

• Tight End

With the regrettable decision to cut Ebron the Lions are still with out a worth while Tight end. Luke Wilson did not make the jump to a number 1 option that I expected like what happened with Marvin Jones or Golden Tate when moving from another team to the Lions. Micheal Roberts may yet turn into the red/ end zone target in his third year (or he may be cut) but he was never destined to be the starting tight end. Levine Toilolo was brought in to be a blocker and proved to be the best of the bunch at receiving as well. The team needs a big athletic tight end (like an Ebron) that is also decent at blocking. The new O.C. is less likely to use 3 wide receivers and will be more reliant on tight ends, extra running backs and full backs. The Tight end is easily the team's biggest need on the offense.

• Change of Pace Running Back

Everything that has been said about Kerryon Johnson has been proven to be true. He is the starting running back of the future for the Lions and is easily the best the team has had since one Barry Sanders. He has good vision, good patience  and good explosiveness off the line. He can burst through small gaps and make the big plays while breaking tackles and making defenders trip over themselves.  He also had some injury concern that was proven correct as he missed half of his rookie year (although had the team made the playoffs he would have returned before the end of the season). He is the starting back but he may not have the durability to be an every down feature back. As such he needs an effective rotational back to complement him. Bevell, the new O.C. has plenty of experience with this setup in both Minnesota and Seattle and pairing Johnson with a complementary back will be a high priority for the team. 

• Wide Receiver(s)

The also regrettable decision to trade Golden Tate to the Eagles left a Lions offense with a lack of punch and scoring ability. While it had a bigger impact on the team's numbers it is also more understandable as the team is moving in a different direction on offense that will not use the slot receiver in the same way and will likely bigger a larger slot receiver being anyway. It is also not so bad because it can be reversed as Golden Tate will most likely be allowed to enter free agency and since he was close to a long term deal with the Lions before being traded he could be open to coming back. Also, our new offensive coordinator is his old O.C. where he was not a slot receiver in Seattle. The Lions could get a new Big slot receiver and bring back Golden Tate and use him like he was before he went to the slot. This is how the team could end up getting two wide receivers this year.

• Offensive Guard 

Regardless of whether T.J. Lang retires, gets cut or except a pay cut on his current deal to stay with the team, the Lions will need a long term replacement at right guard. All signs point to Lang wanting to stay one more year and he indicated he would take less money to do so. When healthy, T.J. is the best offensive lineman on the team, he just hasn't been healthy enough as he has missed half of the games since coming to Detroit. I think the team needs to get away from the high price offensive linemen and replacing older players with cheaper younger ones would help the team at its position player needs. I would like T.J. Lang to stay one more year and help a new right guard transition to a starting role but not if it means T.J. taking a big pay cut that pays him less than what he is worth.

Defense 

• Defensive End (or two) 

The Team's biggest need on defense and overall is for defensive ends. Assuming that Ezekiel Ansah departs in free agency (which seems like a safe on at this point) the team is going to need to get two starting defensive ends this off season. The need for additional pass rushing talent on this team has been talked about to the point of over kill by pundits over the past few years since Bob Quinn took over as general manager. After addressing the teams needs at offensive line, running backs and linebackers in previous years this year seems like the year to take it on in full force. Both the draft and free agency are full of pass rushing options in defensive ends and tackles that it is impossible to imagine the Lions not putting in the bulk of their defensive efforts to this end.

• Corner Back

The Lions have been looking for a good outside corner opposite of Darius Slay for years now and they are no closer with their efforts now after multiple lower free agents and a second round pick. Getting a corner this off season may be more difficult this season it is the toughest position for rookies to adjust to from college, which makes drafting them a hard sell if you are trying to get a starter in any given year (just ask Slay how his rookie season was). If the team was able to get a starter this off season then they could effectively complete their secondary but I don't think that is a realistic option given the teams other needs or the limited options in free agency this year.

Player Acquisitions 
I just want to mention some positions and where I think the team is going to get them in this year's off season. I will address specific players in later article posts on this here blog.

• Free Agency

I would expect the team to get at least one defensive end and one running back in free agency. The tight end selection here is not great but there could be a worth while starter at corner. If the team is looking for a wide out in free agency than there are some good choices here (including and old fan favorite). Finally , even though defensive tackle is not a pressing need, there are some good options available here as well. 

• 2019 NFL Draft

This draft class is deep right where the Lions depth is shallow, at Defensive ends and tight ends. This being the case, I expect the team to address both in the draft. Either one could be a first round pick with the other being the second. I expect the team to also target a Slot receiver and a right guard as T.J. Lang's long term replacement (regardless of whether he plays for one more year). Finally this is also a draft class for corners so its possible the team will get one here. It should be said that the corner back is the hardest position for rookies to adjust to in the NFL and we should not expect to get a day one starter but rather a longer term project.

• Trades

With the rumors of the Steelers wanting to trade Antonio Brown, I should say that I do not expect the Lions to be part of such a trade. In fact I do not expect the team to be acquiring any specific player in a trade. There is a good chance that the Lions could get some draft movement from trading away a specific player that I will cover in a later post.

This is going to be an exciting off season for me to watch as the team has plenty of cap space and a high draft pick and is closer (I believe anyway) to being a contender than their 6-10 record from this past year would indicate. I fully expect some big free agency moves that will turn head around the league and perhaps even an aggressive draft strategy. My next post will be on some possible scenarios  covering both free agency and the draft. I will do a conservative and an aggressive strategy with both of them having some degree of plausibility.  

Lions Blog: 2018 Season Postmortem

With the loss to the Bills of Buffalo, The 2018 season for the Detroit Lions effectively ended. While I know I have not been posting much to this blog since the season began, I felt the need and desire to do some posts on sort of a brief autopsy of the season, what I expect to happen in the upcoming off season and finally where I think this team is heading in the future. This is the first in a 3 part series I will be posting between now and the start of free agency in march. I would like to get some predictions in before that stuff happens. If this encourages me to put up more blog posts about one of my favorite topics then that can only be good for me.

Its pretty obvious to say that the 2018 NFL season was a disappointing one for the Detroit Lions. I was convinced that the team was heading to an easy NFC North title and at least one playoff win. Clearly that did not happen as nothing about the season was easy for my professional football team. It is also easy to dwell on only the negatives after such a season and ignore the hand full of good developments that happened that could result in legitimate optimism for the coming year. I intend to avoid that here in this post.

• Lackluster Offense

The biggest reason for the Lion's disappointing season was its totally lack luster offense. The Lions came in to September they had every reason and right to expect to be one of the most dominant offences in the NFL. The team had the best trio of Wide receivers, a high caliber rookie running back and a veteran Quarterback who can make every throw in the book and many that aren't. Instead and starting with the preseason games, the offence had no personality or rhythm. The receivers seemed out of sync with QB Matthew Stafford and could not make catches to save their own lives. The Lions also did not use their committee of running backs correctly as they often ran short yardage specialist LeGarrette Blount on first downs instead of trusting their rookie Kerryon Johnson. To make matters worse none of the Tight ends made their presence known for most of the season.

Blame for these offensive woes seem to drift between Stafford and the team for cutting Eric Ebron and trading Golden Tate following the team's loss against the Sea Hawks. While the quarterback will always deserve some of the blame for problems for the offense, blaming Stafford has become to go to route for "S.O.L.ers" for years and with the flashes of his "former" greatness that he still shows on the field We know he is capable of doing much better than this. The loss of Ebron and Tate from the roster and the season ending injury to Marvin Jones seems like a better place to start. It is important to note that both Tate and Jones were on the roster and playing for the first halve of the season and the team had those problems with its offense back then as well. Golden Tate was dropping passes and so was Marvin Jones. The Lions did suffer more on the offensive side from the loss of their top receivers as their score average went from 24.4 points per game before Golden Tate was traded to just 17 afterwards. Ebron was cut from the team before the season began  so measuring the impact of his departure is harder to do. I still think that cutting Ebron was a mistake, for what it is worth.

I think the real problem was the lack of proper usage of the personal on the offensive side of the football. Using Blount as a starting or a change of pace back was the wrong move. Being to conservative in the passing game and not going deep more often was a mistake. I think the offense made plays that were more complicated than they needed to be and it put the players out of sync as a result. I believe that most of the problems with the offense this year come from the offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. J.B.C. came in after the departure of Joe Lombardi and proved to be better at the job from the get go. I believed at the time that with more time and experience at the job that he would get better but sadly he did not. J.B.C. made the wrong plays on offense and seemed to do so out of fear that the obvious route of attack would be too predictable. I would call a passing play on a 3rd and short when handing the ball off to Blount (who was brought on to do just that) would have been better. Theo Riddick was not used enough in the passing game, even after Tate was traded and Marvin Jones was injured. Kenny Golladay was barely used at all in the second halve of the season. Jim Bob Cooter just did not know how to make use of the weapons he and Stafford had at their disposal either at the start of the season when the Team had plenty of them, or the end of the season when they had few. It looks like the team realizes that it is time to move on from J.B.C. as the Lions have announced that they will not renew his contract for 2019.

• Surprising Defense 

Much like the offense, the Lions Defense started out very bad in the beginning of the season. Unlike the offense, the defense improved through out the season with promising young players and a very good mid season acquisition that gives very good reasons to be optimistic for the group in 2019. To be fair, the improvement is not noticeable in the points allowed but in other statistics. The team came in with obvious need on the defensive line after the loss of Haloti Ngata and the constant injury of Ezekiel Ansah. Thankfully the team has a bright future with its recent draft picks from Alabama in defensive linemen A'Shawn Robinson and Da'Shawn Hand, both of which have been praised by Pro Football Focus this season.  The biggest weakness was in stopping the run game. This to was addressed by trading for Damon Harrison (a.k.a Snacks) for a 5th round pick. Snacks has been the best defensive Tackle against the run for years and his inclusion turned the Lions run defense from bad to good overnight. What is more he is more than just a rental as we will have him at least until 2020. The Lions have 3 elite or potentially elite defensive linemen on the roster and an effective run stopping game as well. The team has a good foundation to build off of on the defensive line.

The Lion's secondary on the other hand needs a little more work. Darius Slay had a bit of a down year but  still proved he was one of the best corners in the NFL and was once again selected to the pro bowl as was once corned and now safety Quandre Diggs.Rookie Tracy Walker has seen a decent amount of playing time this year and is poised to take over for Glover Quin when he decides to retire from football. The search for a good outside corner opposite of Slay has been unsuccessful thus far and will almost certainty require another high draft pick or a really good free agent signing. Teez Tabor will either make a move to safety and/or will have to take a major leap in progress to salvage his spot on the team this off-season. The nickle corner spot could use some improvement as well. The Linebackers are more difficult to judge. Jarrad Davis started the season poorly but became much better by the end. Davis's spot on the roster is not in jeopardy but his starting position might be. Devon Kennard looks like a keep as a pass rushing LB on the line.

• Injuries and Departures

As is the norm for the Lions, the injury bug hit the team hard this year with the loss of our rookie running back Kerryon Johnson, Wide out Marvin Jones and Right Guard T.J. Lang. We also saw something we are not used to, the trading of the very productive Golden Tate for a 3rd round pick to the Eagles.  Even Kenny Golladay went down to injury late in the season leaving Stafford with no significant weapons in the passing game. This is on top of the team's decision to cut Eric Ebron in the off season.The net results were that the offense laid an egg in the second half of the season even as the defense show signs of improvement. On the defense side there was the continued injury saga of franchised tagged defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and second year Corner Jamal Agnew. The biggest story was the inclusion of Damon Harrison which boosted the Lions Run defense to one of the better ones in the league. 

In short, the season started off as a disaster against the New York Jets, seemed to get better going up to the loss against the Sea Hawks and went off the rails when Golden Tate was traded away as the Lions threw in the towel at the mid way point and set themselves up for a high draft pick and plenty of cap space to use in free agency. While it looked like the team could still some how get in the playoffs if they won out and got to an even record their loss against Buffalo ended that illusion. The off season started earlier than usual for the Lions this year and while I am still annoyed with some of the decisions the team made I am never the less looking forward to the changes that will be made starting with who ever takes over the offense for Jim Bob Cooter, which I will cover in the next post.